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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elroy who wrote (14495)	9/16/2022 10:15:17 AM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 26788

Thanks. I haven't seen anything similar in Oakland and/or Berkeley. Thing seem very normal here, other than there is a higher concentration of homeless in certain areas that I sometimes drive by but seldom stop. So far zero exposure to the alleged increased criminal elementy in the Bay Area. I'm probably extra sensitive to the crime since my nearly new windsurfing van filled with 25 years worth of gear plus 40 gallons of gasoline and a nice sound system was stolen from my driveway in late 2013. They dumped my windsurfing gear, probably sold all the hifi gear and the shell of the van was later discovered in Oakland. How was I notified? With a letter to pay a fine to get it back! Oakland held it hostage for illegally parking in the same spot under the freeway for three days not checking their stolen vehicle reports or noticing that the door was damaged to break in, the steering column broken up to hot wire it and the contents empty but for trash. No... they tried to extort money out of me to get it back. The DNA from FOUR DIFFERENT FELONS was found inside when our local police department went over all the cigarette butts and fast food wrappers left in the van (there is no ash tray so they used cup holders for smoking!) Our local police said they come down here, steal a van, use it to steal other things here then drive it back "home." They dump it after a short time but tell their friends about it so they can use it over and over to haul stolen goods until it runs out of gas. My insurance company was excellent. Told me it was too dangerous for me to try and retrieve the van so they would send a flat bed to pick it up and I had to spend hours filling out paperwork to send in the mail to prove it was stolen so I didn't have to pay the fines. About $25K later between HO and Auto insurance with CSAA, I had all new windsurfing gear, an updated sound system with an even bigger and better subwoofer and the van looked like new but for the wind noise is louder than before...

To: Elroy who wrote (14495)	9/20/2022 5:36:56 PM
From: Kirk ©	2 Recommendations Recommended By oldbeachlvr Return to Sender Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26788

More news of slowing. DRAM Market Deflates, Cyclical Downturn Looms Monthly DRAM sales drop as end-users adjust inventory levels; consumer spending succumbs to inflation/recession pressure. A vigorous DRAM market upturn that started in the last half of 2020 and continued through May 2022 is, by all accounts, over, according to data released in IC Insights’ August 3Q Update to The McClean Report 2022. After posting its highest monthly sales volume in more than two years in May, DRAM sales tumbled 36% in June and another 21% in July. The market collapse was steep and swift—so much so that July’s DRAM market was about half the size it was in May (Figure 1). Concern over soaring inflation and recession has cut into consumer spending on new smartphones, computers, TVs, and other electronic goods. In turn, system manufacturers have scaled back new DRAM orders, citing the need to burn through existing inventory that they have amassed. Figure 1 The sharp decline in DRAM sales seen in June and July might have been dismissed as a short-term anomaly had it not been for comments from DRAM suppliers about the developing market. For example, • Micron guided fiscal 4Q sales results (ending August) of -21%. Micron is scheduled to report its fourth quarter and full-year sales results on September 29, 2022. Their results will likely set the tone for the rest of the industry for the balance of this year. • Nanya’s August 2022 DRAM sales, when expressed in U.S. dollars, were down 53% from its March DRAM sales. • Kyung Kye-hyun, Samsung’s co-CEO and head of its semiconductor unit said, “The second half of this year looks bad, and as of now, next year doesn’t really seem to show a clear momentum for much improvement. Industry veterans know that when the DRAM market starts on a cyclical downturn, it usually falls hard and fast. Figure 2 shows several DRAM market collapses since the year 2000. Each downturn spanned at least 5 quarters and in each case, resulted in the DRAM market falling by at least 41%. Given the current outlook, IC Insights estimates the DRAM market will be 38% smaller in 3Q22 than when it last peaked in 3Q21. Moreover, IC Insights also anticipates more downside for the DRAM market through 4Q22 and into early next year. Figure 2 Report Details: The 2022 McClean Report The McClean Report—A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Semiconductor Industry, is now available. A subscription to The McClean Report service includes the January Semiconductor Industry Flash Report, which provides clients with IC Insights’ initial overview and forecast of the semiconductor industry for this year through 2026. In addition, the third of four Quarterly Updates to the report was released in August, with one additional Quarterly Update to be released in November of this year. An individual user license to the 2022 edition of The McClean Report is available for $5,390 and a multi-user worldwide corporate license is available for $8,590. The Internet access password and the information accessible to download will be available through November 2022. https://www.icinsights.com/services/mcclean-report/pricing-order-forms/ More Information Contact For more information regarding this Research Bulletin, please contact Bill McClean, President at IC Insights. Phone: +1-480-348-1133 email: bill@icinsights.com PDF Version of This Bulletin A PDF version of this Research Bulletin can be downloaded from our website at icinsights.com