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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (14539)	9/30/2022 1:34:16 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26421

Selling time premium is probably one of the smartest ways to use market timing as you are a winner even if your timing is wrong. I feel the same about my trading around core positions. I almost only buy stocks I like for the very long-term so if I get the timing wrong, which is inevitable given how I scale in and out of the trading positions, I can just wait for the next cycle to recover. I've observed that many who trade "with tight stops" never publish an actual record using real money or trades... calling bottoms all the way down can run a bunch of "tight stops" so you might have to get 10 or 20% above the prior high to get even while the buy and hold investor beats almost all traders... it is why you don't see mutual funds or ETFs that trade any of these schemes. BTW, I used to track Cramer and would answer "why bother" and show the results when my Twitter feed had a promo from him to pay for his service. He changed several times to avoid having to publish his actual record. He started his "club" with all sorts of over valued stocks at the start of the year I'd not touch. He started adding to them on the first pullbacks and got crushed. He took it private for pay so I can't say how his portfolio did, but I doubt he's outperforming the S&P or even close despite his cash holdings while I'm ahead by about 5% this year and Buffett is ahead by 10% or so. OTOH, selling time premium to at worst buy more of what you already like OR trading around core positions where we trim when up and buy back when down is more asset allocation than market timing. BOTH are proven strategies with many publishing their records, especially Buffett where you can also buy into his fund as a stock. I worry that those easily swayed might read your exuberance for some as an endorsement rather than just enjoying the fellowship. Just remember you don't get banned for asking tough but honest questions as some of us have.