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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ploni who wrote (2741)	2/21/1998 10:44:00 PM
From: Eric Klein	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Subject: LAMR Charles, Any news on this stock? Are you holding your short? I was reading this guide to shorting stocks (highly recommended). beartracker.com They said that the following should be evaluated before shorting: 1. Find a company which is overpriced compared to the market. LAMR easily satisfies this criteria. It has a P/E > 600, P/S > 8, Price/Book > 24, Debt/Equity > 7. Revenue growth fueled by cash acquisitions (acquiring companies for about 1 times sales). 2. Determine why it is so highly priced. IMO, CCU takeover rumors. CCU sells for an even higher P/S, and they have been buying a lot of other companies (mostly for stock), so it's somewhat credible that CCU might buy them. OTOH, CCU is primarily a broadcast media company, especially radio. Apparently they have been buying outdoor ad companies, but would they buy this one at such a high price? 3. Define the event which could deflate the bubble. IMO, CCU decides not to buy LAMR. 4. Predict the timing of the deflationary event. a. Do you have any ideas on this? b. At what point will it become clear that CCU is not going to buy this company? c. What are the chances that CCU will buy LAMR?