SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Kirk © who wrote (14652)10/14/2022 11:08:10 AM
From: Kirk ©  Respond to of 26434
 
I added more charts and reasons for the bear case to go with the bull case posted here

facebook.com

On the side of a tradable low we have

  • Cramer sounding super bearish yesterday when it was down huge before it reversed.

  • We're seeing cuts in CapX in major chip makers, especially TSMC

  • Intel may lay off 20% of workforce due to lower PC demand

  • -Often bottoms come when the reality hits the chip sector... just as the tops for those stocks came last year when everything looked rosy forever

  • Sentiment reached rare oversold/bearish levels

  • SPX may turn just short of my Red H&S top arrow just as the rally fell just short of the blue iH&S arrow on this chart.

  • Other?

  • On the side of a new low before a 15% or more rally, we have

  • the trend is down until we start seeing higher lows or a real "V-Bottom" with follow-through

  • The Fed is still raising rates - "Don't Fight the Fed" strategy is popular for good reason.

  • S&P 500 earnings estimates may need to be lowered more as strong dollar, high input costs and shortage of workers continue to hurt profits

  • Other?



  • To: Kirk © who wrote (14652)10/14/2022 12:45:22 PM
    From: POKERSAM2 Recommendations

    Recommended By
    Kirk ©
    Mongo2116

      Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 26434
     
    The most important thing to remember in a bear market is that every bounce will be resolved to the downside.
    This bounce will be resolved to the downside. This pattern will continue to at least 2400.
    We are in the long slide down of this bear market. The major bear market rally ended at 4325. Don't look for another.