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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Qone0 who wrote (72618)	10/21/2022 8:43:40 AM
From: Sun Tzu	1 Recommendation Recommended By ajtj99 Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 97636

Bullard explicitly told BBG that the Philips Curve is outdated and they are not following it. He also expressed awareness of all the other issues that people talk about and sort of agreed with with them, but said that the time to do the hard work is now because the employment is strong. In other words, the Fed is taking advantage of the lag as much as they can because they want to deal with only one problem at a time. Mary Daly (San Francisco Fed) was on BBG a few days before Bullard and she said that the Fed is very forward looking and unlike what people say, they are not sticking with the lagging indicators. I am beginning to suspect that Powell presents the baby food version of their deliberations in the presser to keep the questions in bite sound format.

To: Qone0 who wrote (72618)	10/21/2022 9:21:11 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	2 Recommendations Recommended By ajtj99 LoveAG Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 97636

I partially agree. Interest rates are a blunt instrument. They have reloaded their bullets and are now at a good neutral area so should stop. However I do think they should continue and maybe even accelerate QT. You can't double the money supply and then act shocked that the price of everything went up, foreign currencies went down etc. If you give everyone within our borders extra money, they will buy stuff from other countries basically getting real goods for half price. This short changes the foreign country and benefits those here in the US who got everything on sale for half off. Of course they go on a buying spree because they can buy everything with their new fat bank account so prices climb. Drain the extra money and the buying will slow down without affecting the borrowing for production as much as raising interest rates. Raising rates is going to curb production which will further limit supply. FWIW - We should rally now. I know Max Pain is higher but I see a dollar pushing over 113, Bonds dropping with rates rising to new highs and I just couldn't take the pain anymore. I was hedged and made money on the SPXS but I had a lot of slippage, especially this morning when I was doing my reading and had sold some of my hedge when we were at a 7 day trendline that we bounced on but then crashed through while I was reading a long article, When we went through that trendline, that was the last straw for me. Anyway, I'm flat again and the hit was massive. It will take me weeks to make it back and that assumes I can get my mojo back that seems to have left me recently. As for someone asking about looking at trades. I do that each December. I did take a peak at mine a while back and I have an enormous great track record on winners vs losers. I probably bat over 80-90% easy, likely better. The problem is my wins are usually small and my losses big. It's easy to say let your winners run and cut your losses quick but at least with my style of trading, the losers tend to tank very fast but often bounce back thus turning back into small scalp wins. The winners only go up a short time before rolling over. Holding longer would turn them into losers. I just ran my October so far, I'm at 75% winners and that is with me trading VERY bad the last few days. I'm in a slump. However, I am now down for the month with this big hit I just took whereas I was up pretty good up as of yesterday morning. And no certain person (Not you Q), I don't want to be talked down to like a child with advise I already know but don't do. I know my fault and what I am doing wrong, I just struggle with it.