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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Madharry who wrote (71495)	11/3/2022 7:56:27 AM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78749

Macerich Releases Quarterly Results misses by $0.01 beats on revs; guides FY22 FFO in-line. QTRLY Loss per share $0.07

To: Madharry who wrote (71495)	11/4/2022 8:52:24 AM
From: JohnyP	1 Recommendation Recommended By Lance Bredvold Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78749

Hi Harry, at the time you first brought MAC to the forum in 2021, we thought that this would be the best idea of the year. However, the management has failed us. I cannot trust anything they say after they diluted shareholders by 40% at depressed valuation levels, especially when they had mentioned they would not do any dilution! Perhaps SPG will buy them on the cheap in the recession. I also believe in a major recession, look at what happened with high inflation in the 70s. Margins contract in such an environment. So if you do not see it yet, it is perhaps because of your financial situation and those around you. The median household is struggling though with double digit inflation (pepsi and coca-cola basically told us that real inflation is 17%). Personally, I sold positions before the Fed raised rates, taking advantage of the recent rallies. My base-case scenario is that the Fed pivots in Q1 of 2023 when the economy implodes and I do not think we have seen the lows in the SP500 yet. I'm looking for 3000-3200. Sold GILD - EPS expected a bit above $7 for a PE of 11 and the company is doing well with its pipeline drugs but I think i'll get better options once the market declines. Partially sold MRO, this had become an oversized position for me after its rally. Sold out MAC and SPG that I held from the lows of the pandemic. Sold AZO, great compounding machine, looking to reenter lower. I only wish I had bought more of it when Spekulatius brought it to the forum. All these companies may still be interesting to someone else right now. I'm now sitting at 35% cash (mostly USD). I will be patient in this environment and look to reenter positions lower. It was mentally taxing to sell a big part of the portfolio on such a Market hunch, but the recent rallies in risky assets and the reaction after previous rate hikes gave me some confidence.