White Suburban Women Swing Toward Backing Republicans for Congress
A new Wall Street Journal poll shows the key group of midterm voters favors the GOP by 15 percentage points.3196 min read
WASHINGTON—White suburban women, a key group of midterm voters, have significantly shifted their support from Democrats to Republicans in the closing days of midterm campaigning because of rising concerns over the economy and inflation, according to the latest Wall Street Journal poll.
The new survey shows that white women living in suburban areas, who make up 20% of the electorate, now favor Republicans for Congress by 15 percentage points, moving 27 percentage points away from Democrats since the Journal’s August poll. It also suggests that the topic of abortion rights has faded in importance after Democrats saw energy on that issue this summer in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.
“We’re talking about a collapse, if you will, in that group on the perceptions of the economy,” said Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio who conducted the poll with Democratic pollster John Anzalone. The poll showed that 54% of white suburban women think the U.S. is already in a recession and 74% think the economy is headed in the wrong direction.
Views of the economy among the group were substantially more negative than in the Journal’s most recent prior survey. In August, 43% thought the economy had entered a recession, and 59% said the economy was headed in the wrong direction.
The movement comes as several voter groups are giving Republicans a boost in the final stretch before Election Day. White suburban women were a powerful force in the Democrats’ sweeping victories in House races in 2018, when the party gained more than 40 seats, many of them in suburban districts, and retook control of the House. Democrats had been optimistic over the summer that abortion would help motivate this group to turn out and back their candidates in November.
According to the survey, rising prices were the top issue motivating these voters, with 34% putting that as their number one priority, followed by 28% citing threats to democracy and 16% choosing the Supreme Court overturning Roe. White suburban women trusted Republicans over Democrats to handle the economy and inflation. They also expressed more negative views toward the state of the country and President Biden’s leadership compared with a previous survey in August.
A total of 85% of these voters said they were very motivated to vote, making them among the most-motivated groups of those surveyed.
Dana Gianassi, 68 years old, of Lincoln, Calif., said she has already voted for a straight Republican ticket. A registered independent, she leans Republican, but said she has never before voted straight GOP. “Right now I feel the Democrats are ruining our country,” she said, citing her concerns about securing the southern border and high prices.
“We’re on fixed incomes,” she said. “The gas is unbelievable.”
Asked who has a better economic plan, 50% of this cohort said Republicans in Congress and 35% said Democrats. On inflation, 55% said Republicans would get it under control and 24% said Democrats. In August, Democrats easily beat Republicans on the economic plans, though Republicans were ahead on the inflation question by a smaller margin.
Ruth Anne Ramsey, 76, of Darien, Conn., is an independent voter who has not made up her mind yet, but said she is leaning Republican because of her concerns about the economy.
“I think that generally I would trust Democrats on social issues but trust the Republicans more on monetary issues,” she said. “I think that the economy is number one in my mind. It’s costing people so much more money to live.”
A combined 66% of white suburban women also said rising costs are causing a major or minor financial strain, compared with 54% in August.
“It is impacting us personally. I came out with a few grocery bags and I paid $120,” said Susan Smith, 76, of Perkasie, Pa., a Republican who plans to vote for the GOP. “I eat Cheerios every morning and they’ve doubled in price.”
Overall consumer prices rose 6.2% in September from a year earlier, the same pace as in August and near a 40-year high, according to the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the personal-consumption expenditures price index. Households continue to benefit from a strong labor market, and gasoline prices are also down from a mid-June peak.
Overall, white suburban women trust Republicans more on crime and foreign policy. They said Democrats were better able to deal with lowering prescription drug prices. The parties were closely tied on which is best at handling the issues of abortion and education.
Abortion remains a concern for these women, but has been crowded by other issues, the pollsters said, noting that time has passed since the high court’s ruling and the immediate outrage among some voters. In competitive districts, voters are seeing advertising pushing other issues, such as crime.
“It’s absolutely true that these women have shifted their gaze more on the economy than abortion,” said Democratic pollster Molly Murphy, who works with Mr. Anzalone. She said abortion is still a concern, but “they think we’re in a recession. A majority are feeling financial strain in this economy.”
Abortion could play a bigger role in some states such as in Michigan, where the November ballot includes a question for voters about whether to provide a state constitutional right to abortion.
Karen Streisfeld-Leitner, 58, of Croton-on-Hudson in Westchester County, N.Y., said she would be voting straight Democratic and said that abortion remains her top issue.
“I think it’s a critical right being threatened and in many places being taken away, and I think there’s a GOP assault that is happening on that right,” she said.
Ms. Gianassi, the California voter, said she has concerns about crime. “We don’t go out at night any more because of it,” she said. “We don’t go to Sacramento after dark. It has affected our lives.”
The poll offered some warnings for Mr. Biden. His approval rating has dropped among white suburban women, with 38% approving and 60% disapproving of his job performance. In August, 51% approved and 48% disapproved. A total of 74% of white suburban women said the country was headed in the wrong direction, compared with 65% in August.
If the 2024 election were between Mr. Biden and former President Donald Trump, 41% of white suburban women said they would vote for Mr. Biden and 52% Mr. Trump. In August, 55% said Mr. Biden and 39% Mr. Trump.
The Wall Street Journal poll included 1,500 registered voters, who were reached by phone and text from Oct. 22-26. The sample of white suburban women was smaller and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.7 percentage points or 8 percentage points on some of the policy questions.
Write to Catherine Lucey at catherine.lucey@wsj.com |
