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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (74938)	12/19/2022 2:04:01 PM
From: towerdog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 96981

Add buy back tax to the mix

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (74938)	12/19/2022 2:35:50 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 96981

I haven't looked at the weightings in the XLE recently so Im not sure what is fair on it. My view is oil is probably near it's "stable price" but I think NG is going to fall over the next year. We were pretty much locked between $2.50-$3 for a long time then had the panic spike up. In commodities, the cure for high prices is high prices. Especially with NG where it's a byproduct of fracking for oil. It was just being burned off because there was no market for it there was so much of it. A lot was stranded because there weren't enough pipeline capacity etc. With it still double the old price and demand from Europe, I fully expect it to get hooked to the distribution network and a glut to return down the road. Long story short, I'm bearish on NG but not oil. I think by next summer, NG will be back to $4 or so and possibly lower vs current $6. How this affects XLE I don't know.