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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (75157)12/23/2022 10:08:25 AM
From: Qone0  Respond to of 97815
 
2450



To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (75157)12/23/2022 11:53:01 AM
From: RAVINASA1 Recommendation

Recommended By
Mevis

  Respond to of 97815
 
2191-2346



To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (75157)12/23/2022 2:49:41 PM
From: catou13 Recommendations

Recommended By
Lou Weed
The Ox
towerdog

  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 97815
 
SPX= 3195 I don't believe in long term analyses or `predictions', too many events could happen. I use long term charts for support and resistance. I will share my 2 weekly charts SPX and QQQ that I draw few months ago.
SPX could retrace to .618 ( 3195) where there is a support line. If break down then 2020 March low will be the next target because that's the crab target :) . So, for 2023 I think 3195 could be the bottom.


QQQ weekly chart, I see a Head and shoulders. I don't know if it's a perfect one, Ajtj could confirm. The target is 222-225. Below that, I think it could complete the crab to 125.



To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (75157)12/23/2022 7:27:55 PM
From: Sendme3 Recommendations

Recommended By
skier31
The Ox
towerdog

  Respond to of 97815
 
3213 Feb 13th 2023




To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (75157)12/29/2022 1:15:27 PM
From: Jacob Snyder1 Recommendation

Recommended By
ajtj99

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 97815
 
Another guess for SPX low in 2023: 2940 seekingalpha.com

I expect a lot of earnings resets in Q1 and Q2. My forecast is the full year coming in closer to $210, than 5.8% higher around 240, that analysts on aggregate ( FactSet) are forecasting...

At some point, probably around 3000 on the S&P 500, we see the Fed start to pivot towards financing debts versus controlling inflation, which is hopefully subdued by then….

here's what I see in 2023:

A Fed pause on raising rates sometime in Q2 or Q3.QT carrying on until, at least, September or Q4.Tightening financial conditions into autumn.GDP likely to be negative in Q1 and under 2% for full year.Unemployment staying under 5% (giving cover).






After the low:
There will be a few catalysts for a new bull market. The first will be the Federal Reserve backing off of its hawkishness. Again, I see that in Q3 or Q4.

The stock market will anticipate a lovey-dovey Fed once we have been in our panic room for a little while. This is why I do not see a significantly down year, even though I see a new bottom being put in.

Here's why the Fed will back off, and it's directly related to the macroeconomics discussion above:

Russian energy becomes less important over time.China has to produce to keep their masses happy and make a buck.Employment is tight almost everywhere.