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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mason Barge who wrote (4822)	2/12/1998 2:31:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Respond to of 10921

Mason: interesting coincidence on ADSL. I had just mentioned something about the possibility that the modem guys have a chance with xDSL-lite on the BOCI thread (I have ZOOM - gambling a bit). I also like ADI as a "stable" 25% grower for the forseeable future. ADI would be my bet for a core technology holding in the semiconductor area. (I'm biased against the big boys - "anti" bully attitude here!) I also pay very little heed to the analyst ratings. But I listen to the arguments. By listening to a bunch of them it then becomes pretty easy to piece together the entire picture. The thing that blew me away for the 1996-1998 period is how poorly this compares to the 1989-1991 period. And that period was bleak. Perhaps part of the reason is that US companies are in a stronger position now versus then. It just blows me away that in the midst of such a slowdown that you could have easily done quite well in stocks if you played your cards properly (easier said than done!). I'm also a big fan of the coming of the digital age in consumer electronics and digital appliances. Betting on LSI for the long term because they seem to be so very well positioned. (Though totally disliked by the street for disappointing revenue growth in the recent past.) Were you surprised (as I am) that the semi-equips were upgraded today? This I do not understand! Very likely there will be no revenue growth this year. And certainly things look bad for next 2 quarters for gen'l front end guys. I'm keeping an eye on them...

To: Mason Barge who wrote (4822)	2/13/1998 4:04:00 AM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Mason: Finally found a breakdown of step-and-scan statistics (1996): SVGL - 42% Nikon - 36% ASML - 11% IS - 11% (BTW spoke to Zoom today about xDSL trends. They usually are very good at predicting trends. Zoom not as convinced as chip industry about the commencement of large volumes in that market. Certainly like you say not this year, perhaps next year. But they did point out and I've seen this elsewhere the 56K market will still be big for a few more years. Now if only they can figure out how to spur demand and stop bickering about standards - read that V.90 may not be "interoperable"... Interesting companies - shooting themselves in both feet with double barrelled shot guns.)