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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: shane forbes who wrote (4831)	2/13/1998 8:21:00 AM
From: Mason Barge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

OFF TOPIC- <<Now if only they can figure out how to spur demand and stop bickering about standards>> I'm convinced that this, at least, is going to happen concerning ASDL Lite. The Rockwell/US Robotics mess has taught everyone a lesson, and the telco's have too much to lose, and I mean, way too much to lose, if they screw this up. Cable modems are being slowly installed and if they don't get their butts in gear, the cable companies are going to own the internet access business. The ROBC's have some plusses -- better managed, better customer service by far, better reputations with consumers, and bigger base. But they can't take another ISDN disaster. I don't see end user demand as a problem, and I think that the demand from the ROBC's is going to happen. If they don't do it, some third party like WorldCom is going to use the ROBC's wiring (under the telecommunications deregulation act) and install the technology. And what has to be scary for the telco's is that -- should this ever happen on a wide scale -- the third party is going to be able to offer digital telephone service for free! They'd be the Western Unions of the 21st Century, i.e. pretty much completely out of business in 30 years. No doubt in my mind that the analog telephone will be pretty much an antique in our lifetime. Instead of getting internet access over the telephone line, consumers will be getting telephone service over the internet line. So there's my diatribe. ASDL is going to happen with reasonable speed because, long-term, the ROBC's survival depends upon it.