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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maverick who wrote (34590)	2/12/1998 2:59:00 PM
From: DHB	Respond to of 61433

LU=hold NT=hold CPQ=sell GTE=hold ROK=hold

To: Maverick who wrote (34590)	2/12/1998 3:00:00 PM
From: Edward J. Edwards, III	Respond to of 61433

My vote is not to sell to anyone in mid 40's, rather hold out for mid 50s+.

To: Maverick who wrote (34590)	2/12/1998 3:03:00 PM
From: Jan Crawley	Respond to of 61433

Maverick, If Asnd is purchased by LU, NT, or even CSCO, I will hold. Just think of the synergism. By the way, Do you have any specific news, opinions for today's action. Jan

To: Maverick who wrote (34590)	2/12/1998 3:09:00 PM
From: username	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

That is an excellent question. Irregardless (Sowbug joke) of the details, I believe that the senior management at ASND would make the best possible decision regarding any potential merger. If the deal were not great for ASND, I believe that the Officers of the company would say, "Thanks but no thanks". Why do a deal that is not great? They have already seen the downside, been there, done that. I'm "betting" on the management of ASND. I think they know the company, they know the employees, and they know what they are doing. (no, not perfect, but not bad. not bad at all. Cascade was not a dumb move.) With that as my yardstick, I would have absolutely no problem holding the stock if it changed names. In fact, if I liked the second company, which I probably would, I'd probably buy more. Unless it happens after the third Friday in March. (kidding, Mav)

To: Maverick who wrote (34590)	2/12/1998 3:10:00 PM
From: sepku	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

>>>If ASND were acquired at in the mid 40's by a co. w/ excellent synergy. Would you hold for thinking that the combined co. could increase ASND value some more or sell?<<< If ASND were aquired by a company and there was excellent synergy, then the value of the combined company would surely rise. Therefore I would hold. My ideal choice would be NT...their balance sheet is impeccable. I would love to see NT trump LU's piecemeal networking aquisition binge with one master stroke in the takeover of ASND. Style Pts.

To: Maverick who wrote (34590)	2/12/1998 3:17:00 PM
From: username	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

so...uh...ahem. Maverick. Uh...listen. About this hypothetical question. Uhh...so...uh...

To: Maverick who wrote (34590)	2/12/1998 3:18:00 PM
From: gerard mangiardi	Respond to of 61433

Only if it's LU. In that situation CSCO's days as king of the hill may be numbered.

To: Maverick who wrote (34590)	2/12/1998 3:22:00 PM
From: Jurgen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

I would sell. Why ? A move from 25 to 45 means 80% return. My Valuation for ASND, based on current situation, is in the high 40s/low 50s. Too much risk for the last 10-15%. regards five

To: Maverick who wrote (34590)	2/12/1998 3:58:00 PM
From: Gary Korn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 61433

If ASND were acquired at in the mid 40's by a co. w/ excellent synergy. Would you hold for thinking that the combined co. could increase ASND value some more or sell ? Maverick, 1. At the very least, I would sell at least half of my position. That is because I'm too heavily concentrated in ASND. 2. How much I would retain would depend upon who might acquire ASND and the valuation of that company. Gary Korn

To: Maverick who wrote (34590)	2/13/1998 12:07:00 AM
From: username	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 61433

ahem...so...uh...Maverick. Uh..see..uh...listen. What about that...uh...you know the uh....hypothetical question. and that other stuff that Daniel was askin' about. What about that. Eh? thanks in advance, pete

To: Maverick who wrote (34590)	2/13/1998 10:57:00 PM
From: Jack Whitley	Respond to of 61433

<<If ASND were acquired at in the mid 40's by a co. w/ excellent synergy. Would you hold for thinking that the combined co. could increase ASND value some more or sell ? This is intended as a poll. Please give a good reason one way or the other. Note that this is only a hypothetical question. Don't make any investnment decision based on this but invest after thorough research on your own at your own risk.>> I would hold because I think the Ascend portion only of the new entity would continue to grow and be worth much more than $40 per share long term, driving the price of the combined company up. If they were bought by Lucent and got a look at Lucent's WDM technology, the whole damn thing would just explode up. Anyway, I really think that if a company made a bid in the 40's, you would see another bid come in from somewhere else. I am really fighting to keep irrational exhuberance from setting in. jww

To: Maverick who wrote (34590)	2/13/1998 11:48:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Respond to of 61433

Maverick, the answer is in your question. Synergy means more than simply the sum having greater value than the parts, because that could be achieved by just cutting G&A expenses. Synergy implies things like technological leaps because each partner may be in possession of a different component that together may be required to overcome a technical problem. It may also mean more efficient selling because of product fits and cross selling. The result of this is that each partner to the deal is able to accelerate earnings. The real problem comes when you try to calculate the expected growth rate of the combined entity. Simply blending the expected growth rates on a capital-weighted basis doesn't work because it neglects the synergy. So the answer depends on what the estimated growth rates of the combined company would look like when synergies and economies of scale are factored in. Regards, Paul