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Strategies & Market Trends : The Art of Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (6280)	2/2/2023 12:00:07 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	2 Recommendations Recommended By ItsAllCyclical research1234 Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10695

To be blunt, I don't believe most of what you say. You claim you don't hold losers but then post gains on stuff that has been cratering for weeks/months. I've built watchlists of your holdings and never hear a peep from you as they drop day after day after day, then when they bounce, you claim huge profits. If true, great but that's not how it looks when actually tracking it. It's like GZ who's never had a losing trade in the 30 years on SI. I don't claim to see into the future but I buy baskets of companies with solid earnings, a history of dividends and "usually" but not always because I am stubborn and still need to improve on that, cut my losses quick, often too quick getting stopped out before they turn back up. I don't like posting my specific holdings usually but hint from time to time. I bought BDJ, AIO, SPFF, THQ, UTG, UTF, MGU, DNP etc over the last year moving in and out with the market. They aren't sexy, high beta but they all pay dividends and were profitable and closed for gains. My version of high beta I guess would be AIO as it has the junkiest holdings and is the only one on that list I still own until this growth rally tops. It's paying me 10% yield and was bought in the 15s and 16s. I sold BDJ too early just over 9 but had previously flipped it multiple times between the 8s and 9s. UNH is one of their larger holdings and I saw the healthcare weakness coming so I ditched it and THQ. The THQ was a good sell as it is still well below my sell price. As I posted, I am content to sit this BS rally out and just day trade it while having a lot in treasuries earning 4-1/2% risk free. I also have a little XYLD and RYLD for kickers but flip in and out with the index trends. Like I said earlier, you say one thing but then show the opposite. You can't say you cut losses then claim stuff that has been dropping for weeks is your biggest winners. Moderna has been bleeding for weeks yet you still show it. NOPMF was down forever as I posted and was flipping it myself multiple times between the 6s, 7s and 8s. Weather is good, I need to get to work.

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (6280)	2/2/2023 9:33:48 PM
From: Sun Tzu	3 Recommendations Recommended By Lou Weed skier31 towerdog Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10695

Those who want to understand what happened today (and for the past couple of weeks) should read this whole thread. I've been talking (mostly on twitter) about how this has been a short covering hell. This sort of thing has been happening about once every 2 - 4 months since November 2021. This is how you can rack up more gains in one or two weeks than a whole year holding whatever. Let me walk you through what the nature of this quant quake really was. HFs have been grossing up but keeping nets low. The gross leverage is a function of the decline in both rate vol and eqty realized vol (as well as implieds, lower vix - (for portfolio margin haircuts). 1/10 — Paulo Macro (@PauloMacro) February 2, 2023

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (6280)	11/25/2023 1:27:13 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Respond to of 10695

I was checking some old discussions and came across this: Despite what you think, I do pay attention to the fundamentals and the news with the company. Take FRGE as an example. It is the kind of company that you would not touch with a 10 foot pole. Their business is facilitating investments in private companies. Everybody knows that the IPO market has come to a halt and that nobody can get funding for private equity. And that is reflected in FRGE's price. It dropped from 47.50 to 1.26! But at that price, it was a good investment because investments should be measured on risk adjusted rewards. And at $1.26, there is relatively little risk in the company. All they have to do is to survive until the next bull market begins and the IPO market can pick up. How long will that take? Most bear markets last less than 18 months. We've already been 15 months into one. That was back in February. FRGE closed @3.36 on Friday. That is a better than 250% return in less than a year, making it even better than most Mag-7 stocks. For a proper perspective, read the post I am replying to. Incidentally, the other stocks mentioned in that post, SOFI is ~flat, BFLY lost ~50%, NOPMF lost ~30%. However, if you examine their charts, you see that there were plenty of opportunities to cut losses early and/or double down prior to run ups. In the long run, by and large most stocks go nowhere. Mean reversion is more likely than a secular trend. To take a contrary position (as I often do) is to bet on mean reversion. And the number one criteria for that is to minimize the chances that the company will go bankrupt before the next business up cycle. This is a very important point that is lost on many. In the case of FRGE, I pointed out that they were trading at cash and they had very little in the way of expenses. So they were positioned to survive into the next bull market. The same goes for the biotechs that I invest in. I am not smart enough to know if their drugs or methods will be approved or how they will do. But I do know if you buy a dozen quality ones that are beaten down and trade in near cash levels and have enough resources to survive for another 2 years, then some of them will shoot to the moon and make up for the losses in others. This from a recent post of mine on twitter. I took profits on several and closed my positions on many because I think that some time over the next 2 or 3 weeks the market may have a meaningful correction. It may come as early as this Tuesday or it may drag on longer. Regardless, I am not short the market yet (ok, I have one short position that is under water by less than 1% but I can manage that). PS The gains on FRGE seem lower than they are b/c I added to it as the market confirmed my opinion. Ditto for some of the rest. Good for them. I don't manage for the public, so I am not here to grab anything from anyone. But since we're sharing, most of what you see below has been with me for less than 6 months. pic.twitter.com/bICIe273rJ — Archer (@WallSt_SunTzu) November 18, 2023