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Strategies & Market Trends : The Art of Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (6283)	2/2/2023 1:13:55 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10695

These are thin semantics. Adani group is the biggest and best Indian bluechip. A few days ago Hindenburg Research issued a short seller report on them and they have since lost hundreds of billions in market cap. Do you think the investors who poured money into this blue chip thought of themselves as gamblers? How solid was the company if the mere suggestion of impropriety makes them drop like a rock? How come nobody knew that the emperor has no clothes? When I take a position, I don't take it with the intention of selling it 2 days later. I buy it with the intention of keeping it until the chart or the fundamentals tell me otherwise. That time is not preset. It is data driven. The data may come in the form of a bad earnings report or a good analyst research. The chart, if you know how to read it, often tells you about what is priced in. Your job is to read both the chart and the fundamentals carefully and figure out if you are on the right. A company with good prospects and fundamentals will have a chart that shows it. It may pullback, but it won't trend lower. BABA was a good example. Search this thread and see what I wrote about it. I explicitly said that I've heard so many people thump their chests and claim we are missing the opportunity of a lifetime and yet the stock keeps falling. This is enough for me to know that people who have already done their research and are holding large shares are unconvinced by these arguments. So I am not buying. Then at some point in time the chart told me otherwise and I bought it. You can check where that was too. All the people who held on to, or worse doubled down on, a losing position used your kind of argument. It has sales. It has cash. It is blah blah. If I had a penny for every "great" stock that was projected to have such great sales over the next 5 - 10 years and was the opportunity of a lifetime I'd own my private island by now. You think those analysts who wrote those reports did not look at the company fundamentals? Financial markets are very noisy. In every trade there is a buyer who thinks the stock will go up and a seller who thinks otherwise. So half the market is always wrong. It doesn't matter if they are using macro, sector, technical, fundamental, whatever. Half of them are always wrong. How can it be considered anything but speculation if half of all participants are always wrong? People who thinks otherwise are deceiving themself. I've been around long enough to see all kinds of styles. None work out in the long term. The biggest scam, as it is often presented, is value investing. Think about what value investing says. It says that someone is selling you an oil well or a gold bar for less than half of what it is worth. Really?! Millions of people watch the market 24x7 and they are leaving the gold on the side of the road? Anyone who believes that should contact for a fine bridge on sale in Brooklyn. Every style works for a while IF you actually understand what it means in risk adjusted reward terms and what is priced in. And none of them work all of the times or even 2/3rds of the times. And you want to believe something other than speculation is going on? Why?