Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Art of Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (6287)	2/2/2023 5:53:02 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10701

You hear what you want to hear and you are building strawmen to refute something I did not say. I gave you a very real example. FRGE, which I hold and has been great so far, is going to lose money and is in the worst business environment. It went from 47.60 to 1.26. Let that sink in. At it's lows, it was trading below cash. Why wasn't it a good investment? On the other hand, I warned about oil stocks the week before they peaked and about copper two weeks before they peaked. Yes, they have recovered. But how great of a deal were they at the time that I warned about them? Unlike your BBBY bankruptcy example, I can make a real business case for every one of my holdings. As I've told you many times, I don't ignore the fundamentals. And even with BBBY, I would not make fun of because I don't know what the company could be worth in bankruptcy. Sometimes they come out ok, as was the case with K-mart (remember that?). But you are again missing the bigger point or don't want to hear it. Financial markets are very noisy. You can try to filter for earnings quality or size or momentum or whatever, and in the end, half the participants are always wrong. Oil companies are in fact a very good example. I've heard all the stories about the $300 oil. How did it work out? So anyone who thinks somehow he is not speculating because he is staying with "quality" companies is fooling himself. I can make a long list of blue chips that made terrible investments. Some of us are just more clear eyed about it than the rest.

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (6287)	2/2/2023 6:25:34 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Respond to of 10701

Behold - your $300 oil in action! What happened to all those clever analysis by people reading energy reports, oil supply dynamics, chronic under investment, etc etc? Maybe someday they will be proven right. But on that day, oil will not be instantly leaping from 70s to 300. Way before that happens, it will develop a trend and then I will follow it. The point is not that doing FA is useless and you should only look at the trend. The point is that as I said before, whether one is doing TA, FA, macro, whatever, half the market is always wrong. It would be supreme arrogance to assume that you could be consistently right weeks, months, or years in advance. Once in a bluemoon, extraordinary conditions warrant fighting the tape. But the rest of the times, it's best to be humble and assume that the market is right. PS I've poured much of what I know into my algo that you see on display here. The rule is simple, buy near the bottom line on strength, and sell near the top line on weakness. You can judge for yourself how well it does and/or if it is better than the half the market that is always wrong.