Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: POKERSAM who wrote (15325)

2/2/2023 8:52:30 PM

From: Kirk ©

5 Recommendations

Recommended By
#Breeze
Clam digger
Mongo2116
nicewatch
rogermci®

Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 26408

So at SPX 4100 you changed from bear (short) to bull (long) and will stay long until 4250-75?

We could hit 4250-75 before rolling over. Confirmation is at 4100.

I missed that as I just check what you posted here when I did a search.

That means you went long to capture about 3.7% after missing the first 20% off the bottom... seems a hard way to make money to me.

Or am I not understanding? You've had the bear up on your forum picture since the low so I figured you were still short, but congratulations if you caught these last 75 points from your old limit of 4100.

Should you have added yourself to "bears turning to bulls" now that you are bullish to try and capture 3 or 4% after missing 20%?

Each time we hit a top the bulls get in a lather.

I agree that when the perma bulls start slapping themselves on the back so hard they have to join Brock for Tommy John surgery... but I also add in the bears who were wrong for missing a 20% gain capitulating in an attempt to get a quarter in front of what they believe is a steamroller.

Note I put that 20% marker in awhile back so I'd know when some bears would start converting to bulls AFTER missing the 20% gain... I think the semis and some of my "leading indicator stocks" along with sentiment says we're going much higher this year, but we'll probably have a good test of that breakout neckline and/or today's bullish "golden cross" from above before expiration Friday.
.

To: POKERSAM who wrote (15325)	2/2/2023 11:16:09 PM
From: northam	1 Recommendation Recommended By #Breeze Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26408

You do understand that this week we have confirmed a new SPX Monthly & Quarterly Bull Cycle. The Quarterly Bull Cycle has a current projected high of 4692.45 due by 3/31/23 The SPX Weekly Cycle is currently projecting a high of 4582.25 the high will be due 5/26/23 The SPX Monthly could go to 5115 by 8/31/23 Possible ATH during Jun/Jul SPX 60 min cycles are currently on track to take the SPX to 8383.43 by the end of the year. I expect that's a bit high and the cycles will likely tapper off, I'm looking for SPX 5500 to 6000 at EOY. The Monthly & Quarterly bear cycles bottomed out at 3491.58 in October 2022, the current Monthly/Quarterly Bull cycles have a high of 4195.44, that's a 20.16% gain which is the standard Bull Market.

To: POKERSAM who wrote (15325)	2/15/2023 12:32:38 PM
From: Kirk ©	1 Recommendation Recommended By POKERSAM Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 26408

You are not the only bear... Stocks 'disconnected from reality'; Morgan Stanley screens those 'unfairly punished' Feb. 13, 2023 11:43 AM ETS By: Kim Khan, SA News Editor The stock market stumbled again trying to price in a Fed pivot that is still a ways away, according to the equity team at Morgan Stanley. Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson, who nailed the bear market call in 2022, says the lows for stocks (IVV) (VOO) (SPXU) (UPRO) (SPXL) (SSO) won't arrive until late spring, with risk-reward "as poor as it's been in our view." Kirk Comment: VOO is Vanguard's S&P 500 ETF "Back in late July we hypothesized that the market was trying to price a Fed pivot that wasn't ultimately coming any time soon," Wilson wrote in a note. "It appears equities may have just made the same mistake again as sector leadership YTD (driven by Tech (XLK) (XLC) (XLY) and Growth (QQQ) (ARKK) (PTF) (MEME)) looks aligned with last summer's bear market rally when premature hope for a Fed pivot was the underlying narrative." "Thus, with hope for a Fed pivot now dwindling and fundamentals deteriorating further, price is about as disconnected from reality as it's been during this bear market." (Emphasis added). and "From a technical standpoint (charts) show the key trendline resistance we have been watching for the S&P 500 (SP500) (NYSEARCA:SPY)," Wilson added. "This is a critical resistance/support line that goes back to the beginning of the secular bull market that began after the Great Financial Crisis." "After briefly breaking above this resistance 2 weeks ago, the S&P 500 has fallen below once again and appears to be vulnerable to the bear market resuming just as the consensus has given up on the timing," he said. "In other words, investors need to be ready for the cyclical bear to reassert its primary trend immediately." More at seekingalpha.com