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Strategies & Market Trends : The Art of Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (6303)	2/3/2023 3:58:10 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Respond to of 10691

Thank you for your kind words Bob. I'd like to say a few words about trading/investing. There is an art and a science to it. The science of it is what I have tried to encapsulate in my algo. Eventually I will provide it in some form on the net for others to use. But for now I cannot do that b/c there are still bugs in it and the UI is not what it should be. But I am working on it. The art of it however, is this: Know what is priced in the market and if it is extreme, then take the opposite side. This is the only case that I'd recommend going against the tape. For example, when oil was jumping by leaps and bounds and analysts were busy writing why $300 oil is very reasonable (were these people raised on Mars?) I pointed out that oil is a fungible commodity and that China and India will gorge on cheap Russian oil, leaving more the rest of the world and therefore the $300 crowd will be disappointed. Similarly, there was a poll on twitter that I posted on SI. It asked, "TSLA is at 108. Which will come first: 113 or 70". Half the people said 70. That was the cue to buy TSLA as soon as it stabilizes (which happened 3 days later). =========== Back to oil. There are people who think oil will go to 50ish. This can only happen if we hit a massive global recession which does not seem likely now. So I'd be a buyer of oil once the chart looks better. On the other hand. If we keep seeing oil and base metals heading lower, then I have to question the soft landing narrative and short the market. Andy Constan is recommending buying puts on both SPX and the interest rates on the grounds that both cannot rally. Either stocks rally because the economy is good but that means the interest rates remain high, or bonds rally because the Fed has to cut, in which case the stocks can't be making money. This makes sense, but to me it is too conservative of a bet. I'd rather look at commodities and currencies to see figure out what is going on. Oil, copper, and gold will be good straws in the wind.