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To: robert b furman who wrote (6313)	2/4/2023 1:44:07 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10695

I think you need to look at the term structure of the futures to see what is priced into the market. You may or may not agree with that, but you should always be aware of it. If 3 - 6 months out oil futures sell lower than the spot plus carry costs, then the market is telling you that oil will be lower in the future than it is now...I should write a program that just makes that calculation for all commodities...too many things to do, too little time :-( Paulo on twitter had a good thread on what happens when commodity futures go from contango to backwardation or from backwardation to contango. I can't find it now, but it is worth searching for. EDIT - What do you know! Someone's already written a program for that (sort of - not as I would have it, but beggars can't be choosers).