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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: nicewatch who wrote (195956)2/6/2023 10:53:39 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 217576
 
Re <<Adani>>

... me bad, I was and am watching the spin revolving around the Adani episode. I started doing so when Adani came up on the radar during early fall before his fall (hope you like the pun :0)

edition.cnn.com
Asia’s richest man sees growing isolation for China

... until a few days ago, when predictably ... CPC China3 are on the radar


and allegations of fraud also surfaced


and now, suspect Bloomberg chimes in, which makes me doubly think 'they', the UK / US deep-state are in active motion to take down Adani and his friend Modi for reasons we can only guess at.

Recommendation, GetPopCorn.

bloomberg.com

India’s Adani Is Not China Evergrande. It’s WorseBoth companies had accrued billions in debt, but the sell pressures are way more intense for the Indian tycoon.
Shuli Ren6 February 2023 at 10:58 GMT+8



Skittish investors.

Photographer: Dhiraj Singh/Bloomberg6 February 2023 at 10:58 GMT+8Gautam Adani’s wealth wipeout has few parallels. His industrial empire lost about $112 billion, or roughly half of its market value, just seven trading days after New York-based Hindenburg Research issued a bearish report calling the Adani Group “ the largest con in corporate history” — allegations the company strenuously denies. Indian policymakers stepped in over the weekend to calm frayed nerves over concerns the turmoil would affect global investor sentiment toward the country.

Adani’s rapid unwind has surprised many. But this is not the first time emerging Asia’s conglomerates have been accused of poor governance, lofty valuation and even loftier debt piles. The likes of China Evergrande Group survived short seller attacks for years — until Beijing put its foot down. So why is Adani so vulnerable?


Bloomberg opinion
In some ways, Adani is even worse than Evergrande, which, at its prime, accrued around $100 billion net debt, five times Adani’s level. In recent years, the powerful Indian mogul managed to attract blue-chip investors that specialize in ESG or low-risk corporate debt. But on the flip side, Adani has an investor base that is more skittish around market sentiments, and that means the selling pressure is a lot higher.

For many years, those who bought into Evergrande knew exactly what it was — an overleveraged empire that offered attractive yields and was perhaps becoming too big to fail. As such, those who purchased the junk-rated developer’s bonds tended to be hedge funds or private banks’ wealthy clients, who generally have a bigger risk appetite and tolerance than traditional asset managers.

Not so for Adani Group. Believe it or not, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd. — the group’s biggest issuer in the dollar-bond space — is rated at the lowest tranche of the investment grade. So are Adani Electricity Mumbai Ltd. and Adani Transmission Ltd.



When private banks’ wealth clients buy investment-grade bonds, they often pledge them out for margin loans because interest rates on these notes are simply not lucrative enough. Indeed, at least two European banks had been offering to lend 75 to 80 cents for every dollar of Adani Ports bonds pledged, Bloomberg News reported. But when that kind of financing stops — as Credit Suisse Group AG and Citigroup Inc. have done — the ultra-rich no longer see any merit in holding Adani bonds. They sell.

By comparison, this kind of dynamic was absent with Evergrande. Because of its junk grade, the developer’s bonds could never receive 80% loan-to-value ratio. And for years, its juicy coupon payments alone were sufficient for wealthy families to hold until maturity, despite daily market volatility.

Adani’s got more selling pressure from blue-chip funds, too. If there is any market speculation that ratings agencies might cut their bond ratings, asset managers with investment-grade mandates will have to sell, whether they like this company or not.

Further, because of its green energy ambition, Adani has attracted global ESG investors. This kind of moral money is happy to offer cheap loans but will not hesitate to divest if they sense anything dirty. For instance, following the Hindenburg report, Norway’s largest pension company KLP dumped all its shares in Adani Green Energy Ltd. The fund was worried that its “clean” investment could be siphoned off towards “some other activities we are not supporting,” such as coal mining. This clearly was not an issue for Evergrande, which never attracted ESG investors.

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Ultimately, Adani is a typical emerging market conglomerate. It is a family-run business that is not shy about cementing control and fueling expansion with debt. It runs the risk of poor governance, but also offers the potential to fast-track India into a modern-day South Korea. Yet it is at a stage of development that is too risky and opaque for blue-chip investors, who nonetheless had bought in and are now panicking.

As it happens, Adani’s investor base is already changing, with hedge funds and distressed debt investors scooping up its debt and traditional managers selling. That’s the way it should be. Emerging markets are a not a place for the faint-hearted or those who want their hands absolutely clean.

More From Bloomberg Opinion:

How ‘Madoffs of Manhattan’ Can Unravel Adani’s Empire: Shuli RenHindenburg Gives a Master Class. Adani Flunks: Andy MukherjeeIndia Can’t Afford to Get the Adani Affair Wrong: Mihir SharmaWant more Bloomberg Opinion? OPIN <GO>. Or you can subscribe to our daily newsletter.

(Adds moves by Indian policymakers in first paragraph. A previous version corrected the amount outstanding for Adani Ports in the chart.)

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

To contact the author of this story:
Shuli Ren at sren38@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Ruth Pollard at rpollard2@bloomberg.net



To: nicewatch who wrote (195956)2/7/2023 11:44:54 AM
From: Pogeu Mahone  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 217576
 
LOL

Thank you

The controversial mining group, which is responsible for the Carmichael coalmine in central Queensland, announced on Thursday it would change the name of its Australian operation to “Bravus”, a word identified by chief executive David Boshoff as the medieval Latin word for “courageous”.

Boshoff told the Australian Financial Review it was a good fit because the company “took a lot of courage to get where we are and we will stand up for what we believe in”.



Adani legal action sparks fears journalists could be targeted over Carmichael mine leaks

Read more

However, multiple Latin experts have pointed out that “bravus” does not mean “brave” and is more accurately translated as “crooked” or “mercenary”.



To: nicewatch who wrote (195956)2/8/2023 8:43:20 PM
From: sense  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 217576
 
So, looks like an Indian version of the Democrats similar in the Bankman-Fried debacle ?

Except... the Adani financial empire doesn't appear to be hollow, or imploding under its own weight, or have issues with failures induced due to blatant financial fraud... none of the obvious conversion of frauds being tolerated into fraudulent political contributions as the Democrats did... But, it does appear it is an orchestrated hit by the short sellers at Hindenberg...

Odds are they're not wrong in identifying some measure of over-valuation... from which they can easily enough exploit the sensational in reporting to create a profitable trade... but trusting them on anything beyond that... as obviously self-interested mercenaries conducting a hatchet job and more than willing to stretch the truth to generate a profit... that would be an obvious error. I doubt they've got any political motive, themselves... but, that doesn't mean they're not privateers for hire, gladly willing to work for profit at others expense... not above the occasional hit job...

Find it interesting that they've gone offshore... Wondering whether they're actually well prepared for it.

But, why India... when the massive scale in the level of corruption in China's business dealings seem to make it a much more blatantly obvious hunting ground...

Feb 7: India's stock market crisis isn't just the Adani Group's problem — it's a political issue for Prime Minister Modi too

"The Adani Group itself said in a January 29 report refuting Hindenburg's claims that the short sellers' report was "not merely an unwarranted attack on any specific company but a calculated attack on India, the independence, integrity, and quality of Indian institutions, and the growth story and ambition of India"."

Although I know just as little about Indian law as politics... the national security implications seem obvious enough... so will be interesting if the national security apparatus, or the Indian courts become involved... and force Hindenberg to reveal its sources and the drivers and origins of their interest...

Who put them up to it ?

Feb 8: India PM Narendra Modi blasts ‘lies and abuse’ over ties to Gautam Adani

Feb 9: PM Narendra Modi stood by friend Gautam Adani, says Rahul Gandhi

I don't know enough about Indian politics to judge the probable impacts... My take on it, given limited ability, is that Modi's history suggests his team are probably "used to" and tough enough to fend off this sort of thing... even if not "teflon" like we've seen in the Clinton's egregiously corrupt foundation issues. I don't have a good feel for how troubled by a whiff of corruption Indians are really likely to be... or, if troubled, how much its likely to alter or disrupt team affiliations... to benefit the opposition.

But, "India's Stock Market Crisis" is more interesting, to me... as already generally undervalued relative to global stocks... certainly on an ROI basis in terms of yields...

But, I've not looked at it seriously in probably two years...



To: nicewatch who wrote (195956)2/15/2023 11:32:38 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 217576
 
Re <<Adani ... Modi>>

w/r to "The Modi Question" Message 34179681

... arguably the empire strikes back, but let us not cry for BBC, and remain agnostic for awhile

... his Bharatiya Janata Party held a news conference the same day in which a representative called the BBC “the most corrupt corporation in the world.”

bloomberg.com

Growing India Clout Prompts US, Europe to Ignore Modi Crackdown

BBC tax probe raises questions over press freedom in India ‘The world certainly isn’t about to turn on Modi or India’

Muneeza Naqvi
16 February 2023 at 11:31 GMT+8



Narendra ModiPhotographer: Prakash Singh/BloombergJust hours after Indian tax authorities searched the BBC’s offices on Tuesday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi held phone calls with Joe Biden and Emmanuel Macron touting record orders of 470 planes by Air India Ltd.

The juxtaposition, intentional or not, marked a vivid demonstration of Modi’s success at leveraging India’s geopolitical position and economic promise to maintain good relations with the US and its allies even as his government becomes bolder in cracking down on dissent at home.

The BBC probe, which continued on Wednesday, came weeks after the British broadcaster aired a documentary examining Modi’s role in deadly 2002 riots in his home state of Gujarat. Although the government sought to frame the move as unrelated to the documentary, his Bharatiya Janata Party held a news conference the same day in which a representative called the BBC “the most corrupt corporation in the world.”

“India is a country which gives an opportunity to every organization and individual as long as you are willing to abide by the constitution of the country and you don’t have a hidden agenda,” BJP spokesperson Gaurav Bhatia told reporters. “As long as you don’t spew venom.”

The pressure on the BBC represents an escalation of Modi’s efforts over the past decade to snuff out dissent. In 2021, the Washington-based group Freedom House downgraded India to “partly free” from “free” due to discriminatory policies against Muslims and increased harassment of journalists, civil-society groups and other government critics — a characterization that Modi’s government has rebutted.



The office building where Indian tax authorities raided BBC’s office, in New Delhi, on Feb. 15.

Photographer: Sajjad Hussain/AFP/Getty Images

Even so, Modi has faced few consequences from foreign investors or governments like the US that regularly criticize China over human rights. He’s been touting India as the “mother of democracy” while preparing to host world leaders at the Group of 20 leaders summit later this year.

One major reason is that India’s geopolitical importance to the US and its allies has only increased as American policy makers seek to thwart Beijing’s rise, with an increased focus on the Quad grouping that also includes Japan and Australia. India also remains one of the fastest expanding economies at a time of sluggish growth around the globe.

“The world certainly isn’t about to turn on Modi or India,” said Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Washington-based Wilson Center. “On the contrary, most of the international community continues to view India as a strategic player and key trade and investment partner.”

Modi’s erosion of democratic institutions and appeals to the Hindu majority since he took power in 2014 has only entrenched his power. His party is leading in opinion polls ahead of a national election next year that could see him win a third term in office.

Global funds pumped more than $11 billion into India’s stock market in the second half of 2022, putting its gauges among the world’s top performers last year as the MSCI AC World Index sank nearly 20%. A top Goldman Sachs Group Inc. executive said this month the New York-based bank is investing more client money in India and developed markets in Asia-Pacific as interest in China cools.

Still, signs of trouble are evident, leading to some outflows this year.

India has been rocked in recent weeks after US-based Hindenburg Research accused billionaire Gautam Adani of fraud and market manipulation, wiping out more than $130 billion in market value at one of the country’s biggest conglomerates. Adani, who is seen as close to Modi, refuted the allegations and stoked nationalism in a 413-page rebuttal by his flagship company.



Cutouts of Narendra Modi and Gautam Adani are burnt during a rally in Kolkata on Feb. 6.

Photographer: Dibyangshu Sarkar/AFP/Getty Images

“This is not merely an unwarranted attack on any specific company but a calculated attack on India, the independence, integrity and quality of Indian institutions, and the growth story and ambition of India,” Adani said in its response.

Key opposition politicians, who have struggled to compete against Modi’s well-funded election machine, sought to highlight links between the prime minister and Adani to try and make up ground in the polls. Modi has maintained a careful silence on both the Adani crisis and on the BBC documentary, floating above the fray as underlings and supporters defend him and go on the offensive.

“India is on the rise, but sinister designs are there to set afloat a narrative,” said Vice President Jagdeep Dhankhar. “We cannot allow free fall of doctored narratives to run down our growth story.”

A former Indian foreign secretary this week argued that the government should look to boot out some reporters who work with overseas media outlets.

“Foreign journalists especially can’t and must not interfere in the domestic politics of another country,” Kanwal Sibal said in a television debate about the BBC raid. “And if they do they are liable to be expelled. Freedom of expression right can’t be invoked.”

The reaction shows that Modi’s government is seeking to create a “nationalist battle” in which he protects the population against outside enemies, according to Mohan Guruswamy, a former Finance Ministry official.

“He is trying to create a new narrative that foreigners are against you,” Guruswamy said. “These are bad for India’s image as a democracy and as an alternative to China.”



The BBC documentary “India: The Modi Question” is projected on a screen in Kochi, Kerala, on Jan. 24.

Photographer: Arun Chandrabose/AFP/Getty Images

The BBC documentary India: The Modi Question struck at an issue that has stained Modi’s political career. In the 2002 sectarian violence, more than 1,000 people — mostly Muslims — were killed after a train carrying Hindu pilgrims was burned allegedly by a Muslim mob. Human rights groups blamed Modi for doing little to stop the violence, allegations that were denied by him and later dismissed by India’s Supreme Court.

When the film was aired in the UK in January — its broadcast was restricted in India — the country’s Ministry of External Affairs called it “propaganda.” India’s government also asked social media giants Twitter Inc. and Alphabet Inc.’s YouTube to take down videos and tweets about the film.

“The bias, lack of objectivity, a continuing colonial mindset is blatantly visible,” Arindam Bagchi, a spokesman for India’s Foreign Ministry, told reporters last month.



A policeman in front of burning shops in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, on March 1, 2002.

Source: AFP/Getty Images

Before his election win in 2014, the US had denied Modi a visa over his alleged role in the Gujarat riots. After the BBC tax probe this week, State Department spokesman Ned Price referred reporters to India’s government for more details while making a “general point” about the benefits of press freedom.

That’s more than what the British government offered. As of Wednesday, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s administration hadn’t commented on the BBC probe, which came as India announced the next round of UK trade talks. Several weeks ago, UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly noted the BBC was independent and called India “an incredibly important international partner.”

“Modi will overcome this moment politically at home just as he has so many other blows,” said Kugelman from the Wilson Center. “He is just too popular, and the opposition too weak, for any of this to damage him politically. He’ll be fine.”

— With assistance by Ishika Mookerjee