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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric Klein who wrote (2866)	2/12/1998 7:53:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

No problem finding some in Fidelity. it is a pity it takes Asensio to make these dogs start falling. Perhaps, we should start our own firm. I am leaving the security of my tenure professor job next year. Pancho

To: Eric Klein who wrote (2866)	2/12/1998 10:32:00 PM
From: Oeconomicus	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Eric, I heard some "strategist" on CNBC today arguing that Asia, Zippergate and a possible (probable) war had all been "adequately discounted" by the market and calling for a run in the Dow to about 8900 by the third quarter because "we already know about these things". Hell, with some good IRA inflows, why not by April 15? Now, bad news can't effect the market because once the news is out, it's instantly "adequately discounted"? Some other Wall Street Wiz was making a case for a bunch of tech stocks based on having a PE-to-growth rate (get this - based on only this year's growth rate, not long-term) of less than one. The whole idea that a PEG ratio of one (or any number) means anything by itself is a perversion of the concept to begin with, but using current year growth is ludicrous. These rationalizations would be amusing if they weren't setting the economy up for a MAJOR shock when the bubble finally bursts. Don't these overpaid geniuses understand that ignoring news is not the same thing as "discounting" it (actually that's not a good term; "factored in to valuations" would be better if they actually did it). If this is not a classic example of the final phase of a bull market, the speculative frenzy stage, I don't know what would be. Look at what's making big moves up and what's just sitting. HWP, INTC, CPQ and MSFT were all down today. BWDIK? Bob PS: Japan and Hong Kong are both down >300 points so far tonight.