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Strategies & Market Trends : The Art of Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lou Weed who wrote (6630)	3/5/2023 3:43:18 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10493

Thanks Lou. Did the Yole report also consider/discuss survival chances? That is literally my number one consideration whenever I consider investing (as opposed to trading) something. I want to feel comfortable that they will make it through the next economic down cycle and into the next up cycle. If they can do that, then their chances of success improves tremendously. It's kind of like the restaurant business. In that industry, 70% of new businesses fail in the first year. Of the remaining ones, 50% die in the 2nd year. That leaves you with about 10% survival rate for the first 2 years. After that, they are ok until the 5th - 7th year (i.e. the next down turn) where another big chunk die. Those who make past that landmark, are mostly ok to go on as long as nothing unexpected happens. This is how I approach microcaps. How long have they been around as a business? I feel better making a bet on those who've lasted one down cycle than those who have not. But this is not always an option.