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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (15773)	4/10/2023 10:36:15 AM
From: Sun Tzu	1 Recommendation Recommended By sixty2nds Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26570

Et tu $APPL?! It it stays below 161, going to 147 +/-4 becomes likely. https://t.co/lmWR2Yf012 pic.twitter.com/hJlmADNZI5 — Archer (@WallSt_SunTzu) April 5, 2023

To: Kirk © who wrote (15773)	4/10/2023 11:00:25 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26570

Good Morning Kirk, To be honest, I looked at the pandemic as what can I buy cheap that the pandemic impacted with demand destruction. After the reopening I didn't consider what sectors did the pandemic pull all of the oxygen out of. Microprocessors and memory surely have displayed that. With a population increase and the replacement cycle normalizing there will be a lull followed by a reset. I'm guessing it will be short in time, but with chip makers not slowing the inventory supply chain, will delay the normalization as well. More than likely a very specific company by company recovery. I just don't have a feel for how long that takes. I agree that the time lag required is an excellent opportunity to plan a reshoring out of China. I suspect China will have years of slow economic growth as they struggle with the huge problems of excess capacity. It suggests to me the deflation forces will be ongoing for a long time as China plays the spoiler in many mid tech items. Leading edge is where we need to be. Coherent and wolfspeed come to mind. EV component makers and other component makers that share EV with ICE vehicles with their devices ADAS system will be strong as they work their products down to lower cost vehicles. Every remodel will feature DAS and LED lighting. Bob