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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: #Breeze who wrote (15937)	5/9/2023 9:17:49 AM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 26780

Good morning #Breeze, The long and variable lag events of the pandemic are becoming more difficult to comprehend for me. It was easy to see the fossil fuel demand destruction with the lock downs. It was easy to see computer upgrades with the work from home trend created by the lock downs. It is tougher for office building occupancy issues, but I did roll out of some REIT's I had. The length of the pandemics various effects is very nebulous. Do they remain changed and never to return or will they revert back to how they used to be? That's a huge issue for the regional banks i.e. KRE. To see that sector fall like it has, marks distribution in my way of thinking. It becomes more important to look for other sectors, if they exhibit similar declines. If that breadth increases, it is a bad omen. Final distribution tops take time. But their length is short compared to how long a recovery base will take and to how low the valuations will get. When rotation to new sectors or lower priced shares no longer shows up, the distribution top is signaling cash leaving as the money from fabricated short sales is being accumulated and not reinvested. The one possible cue is treasury rates becoming true competition to equities - with a guarantee of your money being returned (if devalued Dollars is considered returned- which I say it is vs. the inevitable valuation collapse of equities - think 2000 or 2008). With a default in the Dollar looming, insecurity in buying A TREASURY BILL OR NOTE will occur. expect rates to spike before resolution, and perhaps a down rating in the US credit score. Thanks for your valuable charts. Lets hope it doesn't spread to other sectors! Time to keep an eye out for euphoria. Bob