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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Phoenix who wrote (12461)	2/13/1998 5:14:00 PM
From: sepku	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

>>>Style.... Ascend... not in your portfolio at years end? Why not. I thought you were the big bull over there. Let us in on your thinking. All along you've been saying ASND will finish 98 better than Cisco so why get out given that Cisco is easily 100+ by years end?<<< Well, because I learned many important lessons over the past 6 months. I should have sold my ASND shares in the mid-50s when the negative whispers first began to surface. All the warning signs were there, but I kept thinking that the problems weren't as bad as they seemed. I should have recognized that when the $50 stock of a multi-billion $ company falls 5 pts in the course of a week with a negative bias, then it's obvious the institutions are dumping -- indications that the problems are very real, indeed. Too bad I chose to believe in the "legend" behind ASND, and hang tight. At first I expected a sustained rally, but it never happened so I decided to hold. It kills me to know that I could have sold at a very nice profit when the trouble started, only to double my stake in the 20s. I got greedy...in the refusal to settle for less than $60 (that was my target back then), I ended up losing far more in potential profits had I just sold. I believe ASND is worth $50, once it regains its earnings momentum and the estimates begin to move up (already the analysts are beginning to upgrade -- about 1/3 in the last month). The problems have been solved, a new killer product has hit the market with no comparable product from competitors, a great many others are waiting to be introduced in Q2 and Q3, CSCC is booming with the synergy finally paying off, contracts are beginning to roll in, and the estimates have been lowered to the point that they are now realistic and can be beaten. With a couple more good Q's behind it, ASND should be trading at 50 soon (around Q3 is my guess). But then that is when the valuation starts to get bloated again...and with the likes of CSCO gaining ground in key markets where ASND once faced little competition, I have to wonder just how fast the company can grow without a big sugar daddy behind it (NT?). And THIS time, when the valuation reflects cautious optimism, I shall bid ASND farewell (perhaps leave a few 100 shares behind, just in case). I have no doubt I'll probably miss out on the overswing to the top, but I'm not risking another setback. 100+ for CSCO in '98, is your view? That would nearly double the already enormous market cap. within a year! With CSCO not growing at the clip it used to, do you really believe that is possible? I'm thinking that perhaps if COMS is still around 30 by the time I sell my ASND shares, I might consider taking a smaller position in it. I know it could see 24 again like it did last Spring, but it is looking very undervalued with a long-term perspective. The problems are temporary, and the stock could see 50 again within the year, with a change of sentiment. Style Pts.