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Technology Stocks : Oracle Corporation (ORCL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: moose who wrote (5543)	2/14/1998 5:26:00 PM
From: Charles Tutt	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19079

I've always thought a high put/call ratio was bullish. Why do you think it's the other way around? JMHO, of course.

To: moose who wrote (5543)	2/14/1998 9:32:00 PM
From: Andy Parham	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19079

ORCL 30+ by end March. Bought some last year at 40, a lot at 32, and betted my farm at 22. ORCL is still a leader in info management. Every now and then you need a wake up call to fight off the fat boy complacency syndrome. They have had this and they are poised for excellence once again. They have been beat bad and much worse than should have been - nobody could have seen the ASAIN thing coming but it will eventually disappear thru recovery on their end or thru ORCL restructuring their demographic presence. What I love to reflect on when I am in doubt is the fact that the most precious commodity in the world (especially in the highly competitive world of coporate US) is that the competitive advantage goes to the one that make the most sense out of information. I only see the recoginition of this increasing and while there are many other companys that try to do what ORCL does the clear fact is that ORCL is the most reliable and entrenched and their is a lot to be said for this. OK 30+ by end of March could be pushing it but I say be long - especially getting in anywhere under 30.

To: moose who wrote (5543)	2/15/1998 1:18:00 PM
From: Larry Brew	Respond to of 19079

moose, << orcl puts >> Good luck short term. Are you aware of ORCL's part in the video on demand with SGI, SUNW, ADSL and Fiber delivery systems. The video world is pulling together and ORCL stands alone with video streaming. I recommend cashing your profits on 'puts' soon, because by the end of 98 and into 99, this baby is moving straight up. It's just one of those network related companies a little ahead of their earnings. Asia will be a vague memory of the past. Larry

To: moose who wrote (5543)	2/15/1998 7:12:00 PM
From: DanZ	Respond to of 19079

Here is the open interest for Oracle puts and calls that are closest to the money. ORCL close 2/13/97: 26 3/8 Feb Stike Calls Puts 22.5 10117 3976 25.0 14854 3264 27.5 3678 681 30.0 409 43 Mar Stike Calls Puts 22.5 6161 11929 25.0 9856 3483 27.5 5959 863 30.0 10579 2217 My read on the data: Given the high open interest in the March 22.5 puts, it is unlikely that the stock will sink below 22.5 in the next 5 weeks unless the open interest in that series shrinks. Based on my read of the February series, I think it is more likely that the stock will finish closer to 25 on 2/20/98 than 30. One more noteworthy technical indicator: While the stock has rallied significantly over the past four weeks, the money flow has been negative every single trading day since 1/20/98 and it was negative every day from 1/6/98 to 1/16/98. This means that the money flow has been positive only one day in the past 28 trading days. Money flow is calculated by subtracting the dollar value of downticks and adding the dollar value of upticks for every tick during the day. It has bearish implications when a stock rallies with poor money flow. On the other hand, it has bullish implications when a stock drops with positive money flow. On the cautionary side, February options expire next Friday. Given that Monday is a holiday, there are only four trading days until they expire and I think it is very risky to buy them. It is likely that the February 25 options will expire worthless--which is why they are asking 1/4. Cheap options, high risk, good luck with your purchase. Dan