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Technology Stocks : Creative Labs (CREAF) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: B.K. Ohneis who wrote (9765)	2/16/1998 6:19:00 AM
From: John Coltrane	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13925

By "impact", I take it you mean the i740. Well, I've just finished perusing Tom's page on the matter, and he documents the obvious superbly. Impact....in basketball parlance, I'd call the i740 the Sixth man coming off the bench, a "Situation" Player. They have just defined the bottom level of the market in terms of performance. Today the i740 virtually meets the high end level, but as we all know that bar keeps moving. Today's high end will be tomorrow's low-end product. Think Intel doesn't know this?? Well, if I intended to take over the low-end of a present day "moving-target" of a market. I wouldn't aim at where the target is, but at where it's gonna be. If that market is large enough (and it is) and the players are weak (they are), and I'm Intel--I'd simply muscle my way in. Pun intended...S3, Cirrus and the like are lying face down in an alley in some sort of alcoholic stupor and along comes Intel and lifts their wallet. They call this "rolling a drunk". Lets look at price $30-35. They are pricing this as a high end chip. Being not quite that, and given INTC will most probably follow a similar quarterly pricing pattern to that of its microprocessors...$35...$25...$15.... You get the picture I'm sure. The Intel weenies Gateway, Dell and Packard Bell will be right on board, most probably with some deep discounting from Intel at the beginning. Compaq and Micron are a ? Each of them have demonstrated an ability to go their on way at times, which leads me to my second thought, as mentioned on Tom's page. Intel/Real 3D has met the bar on present day second generation 3D technology, but a year late. Confirmation from another mind. At this point I'd imagine that Nvidia (the actual 2D/3D leader) could match Intel's price drops dollar for dollar, maybe even be ahead (this is something I'd watch for). Also, Nvidia will be coming with their next generation technology within months possibly weeks, as well as a proposed stock offering. They'll need the cash. Will Intel be matching this move up in technology in a similar time frame? Probably not, further defining the bottom. Also, watch for next gen for Rendition and as well as NEC/Power VR (deep pockets here, but they're Japanese pockets! (not a racial pun, just a mentality one. Large bureaucratic company against small, nimble companies in a fast moving industry)). But watch for Banshee!!!! If Banshee meets expectations (and remember 3Dfx is exactly in its position because it met expectations while others missed the mark). Then Major shakeout and fortunes will be made and lost. I would not be surprised at the end to see virtually TWO players and no "middle" market with Intel at the low and what now is the middle/business market with 3Dfx dominating the large high end. If Banshee is a success, I don't think the consumer will purchase a Banshee less PC. Any survivors of this shakedown opps -out will survive by Price & Hype selling to witless newbies. Who are the weak sisters? Rendition - may survive as a hypester. Lord help those witless newbies (I love this phrase, taken from a boot magazine writer). Power VR - survive on largesse. S3, CRUS and the like, Geronimoooo.....shoot does not open! It didn't open the last time either. ***Matrox - can anyone say 3DDDDDDDDDD!! May survive on Rep and as a companion to a dedicated Voodoo2 card, but how can they be price competitive with Proprietary Wram (too costly?)...hmmmm. ATI - hmmm.....definitely a hypester, inadequate 3D, very good packaging of video technology (All-In-Wonder, etc.), decent marketer, excellent companion card to a dedicated voodoo2, but Intel seems to be positioning i740 on the motherboard to support some maybe all of the "All-In-Wonder" features, which means ATI must raise the bar. Best candidate to straddle the fence between Intel and 3Dfx, but they must reposition themselves in the market place, probably with declined margins, but possibly with a future as TVs and PCs continue to converge. Nvidia, Banshee Killer???? They'd like to think so. Time will tell. They have the technology to compete against Intel, but probably not the pockets. Can they be competitive with 3Dfx?? I'd wager they'll be performance and price competitive, but unless they FURTHER the bar, then Banshee will solidify Glide as THE 3D API. All games that matter will be written to Glide FIRST if not ONLY. If they further the bar far enough it may survive as an Intel/Justice Department alternative, but squeezed from Intel below and 3Dfx on top. How about an nVidia buyout by ATI....HMMMMMMM? Impact on CREAF (I'm still studying this company, so far I like), outside of audio, they're just packagers/marketers, but oh what packagers. They'll package the i740 just like many and try to sell to the secondary market as well as users of non-Intel motherboards. How's this for total speculation? But I can add.