Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Financial Collapse of 2001 Unwinding -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: elmatador who wrote (11408)	7/21/2023 10:38:22 AM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 13775

C'mon.. export model old news.. transition to consumer economy is in process.. granted.. population age. Property bubble and post covid lethargy are weighing.. how many RE bubbles have we seen in US and Canada ? Roach points out also that China never had a Japan style sugar rush stock market bubble.. Not worried here about the hand wringing on China.. let's see post US election just how much capitalism strikes back in the the US B

To: elmatador who wrote (11408)	7/22/2023 7:52:33 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13775

Good Morning EL, As we've posited for years, a centralized communist government can not and will not be more efficient than free market pricing. The continued mal investment into real estate has finally caught up with all Chinese real estate owners. Empty ghost cities. What has caught up with China, is most likely a bigger problem than what the US experienced in the GFC of 2008. Everyone knew that real estate was safe and would never lose value. It became acceptable for minorities and poor people with little or no credit to get credit. On top of that the credit was handed out under the guise of "The American Dream" with little to nothing down for all including those who had a record of not paying. That political fiasco took 12 to 13 years of ZIRP to clean up in the US. How long will the Chinese be saddled with loser pricing in their homes. Japan Redux! China's lock downs and poor handling of Covid (not to mention denying the source of it coming from Wuhan) made it clear that China's goal of becoming the world's manufacturing center, did not go hand in hand with the rest of the world solely relying on China for controlling inflation and maximizing corporate profits. Reshoring, near shoring, decoupling, derisking are all names that say - We're no longer relying on China. There also is a healthy paranoia about China dominating natural resources that put a strangle hold on manufacturing for all other counties. Monopolies are seldom fun for the rest of the world. If you doubt that, just think how popular OPEC+ is today. I suspect China is on a long slow decline that the rest of the world will be more comfortable with. I also suspect it will delay the next commodity super cycle. Resourcing commodities is a long time pursuit to put together. In the end more countries will benefit in a global wide production supply chain. China needs to become more internally consumption oriented. Their aging demographics will no doubt require more health services (especially after living in such severe pollution). China needs to join the rest of the world regarding curbing fossil fuel use and pollution of all types in general. They need to have credibility in what they say and do what they say vs the bald face lying that currently goes on far too often. Free market pricing may well be slower, but it saves a lot of mal investment, loss and pain. JMHO Bob