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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jess Beltz who wrote (4852)	2/14/1998 9:14:00 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

< I have been pounding the table on this one without ceasing. Indonesia is going down in flames as we speak.> Yes I have been an interested listener...thanks so much for your updates on the situation there. Jimmy Rodgers, the much maligned "resident bear" on CNBC is also avoiding Indonesia saying it may actually be more than one country in the not to distant future. I would all world markets would react rather violently at least in the near term if something like that happened. DAK

To: Jess Beltz who wrote (4852)	2/15/1998 9:36:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 10921

Jess, I believe I have read somewhere that 30% of the Indonesian debt is "owned" by Japanese banks. They will do whatever they can not to have to recognize the "badness" of these debt until after they close their books on March 31. As for Indonesia itself, it does have an importance to world trade because major trade routes for shipping passes through the islands. If the country falls apart, the current minor sea piracy that is present in the South China sea will develop into a main problems over these shipping lanes. This will then require military presence in those lanes and that will drag the US and other nations in actual policing operations there. I think that if they do not straighten out the mess, their currency could drop to 30,000 to the dollar before it stabilizes, and this could completely eradicate the corporate infrastructure they have. If this first domino falls very hard, the others in the rim could be dragged down again. I see a real danger of funadamentalism spreading to the Muslim parts of the rim if the economic hardship becomes much more severe than it already is. Zeev

To: Jess Beltz who wrote (4852)	2/15/1998 3:10:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Respond to of 10921

Jess, there are two major camps on Wall Street now, those who believe that the Asian impact is already factored into the current market and those who don't. At the moment, it looks like the former camp is more popular. The market tried to correct a few times last week, only to be immediately overwhelmed by buy pressure. Stocks like AMAT, LRCX, TER are totally ignoring warnings. Take LRCX as an example, how it survived the disastrous press release is beyond my comprehension. I too am on the sideline, very envious of the recent rally but unwilling to assume the inherent risk. Based on AMAT's recent release, Taiwan appears to be surviving well and is the only bright spot in Asia for the semi/semi eq sector. How can it be? How are they going to fend off competition from Korea, may be even Japan? Then there is always China with its ambitious infrastructure plans, the HK peg holding, the Japanese banks...... I wish I can share the optimism that the Asia contagion is already factored into the current market. Ramsey

To: Jess Beltz who wrote (4852)	2/16/1998 9:54:00 AM
From: Mason Barge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Jess and all: Let me suggest something, so that you can use the expertise you've gained in this sector. I agree about the dangers in Indonesia, although I don't think that it's a done deal at this point. But a scenario in which populist leaders (30 years ago they would have been commies, now they'll no doubt be Muslim clerics) rise up to wrest the government from Suharno, including a very possible division of the country, and a protracted period of either civil war or gradual growth (such as is occurring in Iran right now), looks very possible. In any case, the debt would be repaid 0 cents on the dollar. So, my suggestion: pick some stocks in the sector with no exposure to the area, and buy them, but balance your purchase with short sales for securities with a lot of exposure. TER for instance is a great defensive pick, because of its large business not only in Europe, but in other fields than semiconductor manufacture, such as telecommunication devices.