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Technology Stocks : Network Associates (NET) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Carragher who wrote (2006)	2/15/1998 8:34:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6021

OT John and Doug, I don't see compromise as possible here, because Saddam has openly flouted the UN brokered cease fire. That agreement required Saddam to open the country up to inspection. He has defied the UN by unilaterally declaring presidential sites "off limits". Remember, this man has demonstrated a willingness to use CBW (remember the war with Iran). Thus, either Saddam will yield to the threat of US military action or he will be attacked. The wild-card in all of this is Israel. Netanyahu must somehow be kept on a very short leash. I don't trust this man at all, but we must remember that the US renegged on a previous agreement with Israel during the Gulf War. The US promised aid for housing to help with the immigration problems from the Soviet Union in return for Israeli forebearance in retaliating against Iraqi scud attacks. I don't think that Netanyahu and the Likud will be likely to rely on US assurances this time around. The best we could hope for, is that if attacked, Israel would repond with a carefully measured response. An important distinction here is that since no Arab state except Kuwait is part of the coalition, Israeli retaliation would not trigger a collapse of the coalition. As I understand the situation, all the Arab states that supported the coalition against Iraq in the past continue to support a US military move against Saddam, but that support is sub rosa . It is also important to consider the fact the US can probably obtain the covert support of the new Iranian leadership. According to the NY Times, the ayatollahs now in control are seeking an accommodation with the US. Russia and France are upset because Iraq owes them considerable amounts of money, but the only way they will be repaid is if sanctions are lifted. In addition, Russia has multibillion dollar contracts to rebuild the Iraqi oil fields and pipelines once sanctions are lifted. Ironically, if Saddam is forced to honor his UNSCOM commitments sanctions will be lifted in short order. This goes a long way in explaining their reticence in confronting Iraq, but I think the notion of the Arab states seeking a Russian defense umbrella is extremely unlikely. Regards, Paul