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Non-Tech : RECY Looking Good... A -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: ed doell who wrote (4121)2/16/1998 2:22:00 PM
From: unregmarket  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 7006
 
Dear Ed D:

From World Steel Dynamics, February 1998

"December (1997) domestic (US) steel orders were especially robust, and posted the biggest year-to-year gain of any month last year."

The scrap market is growing and can handle a "glut" of US-bound Korean scrap steel.

You are correct - RECY investors should consider these issues.

Rick M.



To: ed doell who wrote (4121)2/16/1998 5:18:00 PM
From: David Graham  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 7006
 
Ed,

I don't think anybody would flame you for bringing important information to this thread, as this is an important point. I don't share your opinion of the effect of this dumping if it were to happen. RECY buys and sells on spot inventories and is not extremely venerable to fluctuations in the price. They make there money from the spread between wholesale and retail price. The margins do not fluctuate much.

Grammy



To: ed doell who wrote (4121)2/16/1998 5:22:00 PM
From: Mr. Clint  Respond to of 7006
 
THANK'S,I have been away from this thread for a long time.
Nice to see good information posted.
Clint



To: ed doell who wrote (4121)2/16/1998 5:39:00 PM
From: Jack Ucci  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 7006
 
I welcome your posts. Unfortunately I bring no new information to this discussion. I certainly appreciate the reasoned responses that your posts provoke. But I realize too that stock prices don't always reflect these rational considerations but also factor in investor perceptions and sentiments. Cheerleading aside, what could drive this stock north? More and more evidence that they are realizing their stated game plan. What could drive it down? Any fortuitous delays in these high expectations AND also general market conditions that affect whole sectors of the market and rival companies.

In the final analysis for me every stock has its worry factor and RECY is no exception. The tug of war between the positive and negative forces affecting this stock will be interesting. I have been long since shortly after Doug R promoted it. And many times along the way I regretted not cashing in my sizeable gains. Even Doug mentions the factor of rate of gain. People are talking about a double from the 6.5 level. But I note we already have a triple. Events could and have occurred which could make this a volatile situation!

So I repeat I read both the positive and the negative comments on RECY. Keep them coming.



To: ed doell who wrote (4121)2/16/1998 6:54:00 PM
From: voyager.ed  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 7006
 
Ed,

I watched a good part of that conference this morning on CNBC. His comments on dumping of all products by Asians are a concern to many stocks, including RECY. I think the majority of steel will be west coast, and I think that there is some degree of comfort in that that is not the main geographical area of concentration for RECY.

While this post may be unpopular, it is a factual concern, at least in the next 3-6 months and should be considered by all investors.

I would tell you Ed that I do a lot of my business from Asia (over 50%) in Hawaii visitor attraction, and all of the market segments over there are in disarray. I am not sure how quickly or how seriously they will be in a position to dump. On the other hand, I'm also not certain how soon they will be in a position to buy anything either (not an RECY issue).

Thanks for the post.

regards,

Ed



To: ed doell who wrote (4121)2/17/1998 8:25:00 AM
From: Brewmeister  Respond to of 7006
 
Ed,
your point is well taken and a very possible scenario. I doubt I would call it dumping, although they are likely to cut prices on just about everything to keep factories running and workers working. Unions in Korea are incredibly strong and labor unrest is an issue. Unemployment is not a first option in solving Korea's problems.

That said, I think the affects on RECY may be minimal because:
If steel is sold for lower prices, the highly efficient minimills will likely be the last affected. The big inefficient steel makers will get hit first.

If cheap steel does come in from Korea, it will hit the West coast and little of it will make its way to the Midwest and Southeast due to costs of inland transportation vs ship. While there might be an overall depressing of steel prices across the country, the effects would be more limited outside the West coast region.

If minimills are the last to go and they still have a strong appetite for scrap, supply and demand for scrap will continue to drive scrap prices. Therefore, prices would hold firm if demand is there. The minimills might take more of the hit on price to keep the mills running. The mills might work on scrap suppliers for a deal, but if demand does not drop off, prices won't either.

Again, I see this on more of a regional basis.

What I don't know is if Southeastern mills have plans to expand overseas which could be a positive for RECY in this region. Lots of other factors involved.

Of course, all IMHO and comments are invited.

Regards,
Dan