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Strategies & Market Trends : The Art of Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Sun Tzu who wrote (7631)10/15/2023 7:35:39 AM
From: sixty2nds  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 10713
 
Happy Saturday!

QRTEP was a play I picked up from The Big Secret On Wall Street, a Porter & Co. publication.

The original write up it was rec'd as a Buy up to $50/sh.

I did not think QRTEP was in what I call Buying Position at that time.

The basic thesis was the Disaster was averted, + FCF was established, and it would grow.
The Debt Stack would be handled with a significant margin for error.

Yesterday TBSOWS said SELL QRTEP.

The reason...Higher interest rests for longer.
They see National retail sales slowing.
A sharp credit tightening
They are in the recession camp, believe the QRTEP FCF will shrink, and NOT handle the Debt Stack.

Me...
I will continue to hold QRTEP and still plan to add this Q.
IMO...
The current Q reporting in November and the following are critical Q's.

I will not blindly continue to add QRTEP in 2024.

In short...

I'm raising my odds of BK from 10-15% to 20-25%
I will keep QRTEP on a shorter leash.
Porter & Co took a 13% loss on the QRTEP AFTER counting $6/sh in 3Qs of dividends.
My Cost Basis EXCLUDING $4/sh, 2Q's of dividends is roughly 25% less the theirs was.

Cheers,
60