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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (82644)11/3/2023 12:31:36 AM
From: Sun Tzu1 Recommendation

Recommended By
Hayduke

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 98151
 
OK Lee, part with your wisdom. Is SPX in an uptrend or downtrend right now?

You cannot tell, can you? At best you are going to draw some arbitrary regression channel and say it is at the upper/lower/middle whatever of an up/down/sideways channel. How is that of any use? Especially since you cannot tell when the trend is changing.

I am telling you something very simple. Follow the trend in the shortest timeframe that matches your trading skills. Then when the stock goes extreme by hitting the red/green lines *and* the stock makes out of character move - i.e. shows strength at the green or weakness at the red, take a chance.

This is how all trading works. You spot an anomaly and take a chance before the rest of the market wises up to it. If it is the start of a new uptrend, you will have captured outsized gains because there will be a short squeeze or a big selloff. And if it is not, then your stoploss at the trendline minimizes your losses.

Why is this so complicated for you to grasp? Every trend comes to an end at some point. Those are your ideal entry and/or exit points.

I even demonstrated it for you step by step on Toyota. When the stock violated the downtrend, it was a buy. Once it violated the uptrend in the opposite direction, I took profits.

I don't know if you really don't understand this concept or you just want to play word games.

PS you should most definitely trade a 10 tick trend if you have the means for it. For me, my skills don't go much below the 15 minute bar. So stop playing word games.



To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (82644)9/18/2024 11:17:35 AM
From: Sun Tzu  Respond to of 98151
 
As I have often emphasized, your time frame is the most important decision you make.
I understand that I trade faster than most. But you have been terrible in your criticism even if the time frame was much longer.

This is what you complained about almost a year ago:

The list of crap you post have what ANYONE would call downtrends. My f@@@n god, LUMN, ME, BFLY............ have been drawn and quartered for months or years!!!!!
Let's see how they've done since you wrote the above.

BFLY was 0.80 then and is now 1.90, after going as high as 2.20. So it had a near 200% gain.
LUMN was 0.98 then and it is now 6.38 after going as high as 7.83. I let you calculate the gains.
ME was 0.87 then and it is now 0.36. So you'd have a 60% loss.

Let's say you have zero trading skills and no stop losses and no adding to winners (even though I've described my system in details). If you had allocated $1,000 to each and held till now, your $3,000 would be today (2,375 + 6,510 + 413) = 9,298 for a better than 3x increase in less than a year.
You're in serious denial.


One of us is in serious denial, but it's not me.

My average hold time is ~4 months, and these are the results. Message 34827517 Show us how you've done better.

PS The good thing about internet is that we can actually track who said what and how it worked out. All I am doing is quoting you and showing how it worked out.



To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (82644)9/18/2024 11:48:38 AM
From: Sun Tzu  Respond to of 98151
 
BTW, I know DNA is the kind of stock that you hate.
You hate the sector. And you hate it even more since it's been a downtrend.
So I thought to let you know that I just bought a bunch at $7 even.
I look forward to catching a turn around. If it works out, I will add to it. If not, I will get stopped out and my losses will be minimal. Refer to the link in my previous post on how risk management works wonders for a portfolio.

See the chart below for the buy signal...and potential targets.