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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Madharry who wrote (74240)	11/14/2023 6:57:39 AM
From: Harshu Vyas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78751

I foolishly hadn't considered much of that. You raise some good points - this is already a pretty risky investment (it's less than 1% of my portfolio, may be slightly lower in the near-term). It will probably decline in the next six-to-twelve months given the "snooze" approach management are taking. The other thing is I don't think many elder people want to take the jump into moving into a home (I think my parents would disown me if the time came and I dumped them in a home!), but once they're in, they stay (from the stats I've seen). As you mentioned, the Covid generation will probably feel somewhat self-sufficient so maybe the next few years will be even tougher than I initially suspected. I guess my counter would be maybe if there's a social element to living in homes, then it becomes desirable once more (this coming from an anti-social person lol). My bet is in the long-term senior housing works out just as it did in the past. You're right about profit pressures - it's such a high maintenance business but I'd rather they were operating a business where consumer satisfaction is high (so long-term profits are maximised) rather than cutting costs and destroying consumer satisfaction. The main problem with Brookdale is they're spending money on failing properties when they already have a portfolio with many successful properties (i.e they're sacrificing profits for more AUM). In my piece I was diplomatic towards management - in reality, I'm hoping some activist investor gets rid of them. Downsize the business and it'll work. Don't wait for the banks to seize the properties, sell them and take the cash. The longer they wait, the tougher it gets (as I mentioned, I think defaults are looming). Thanks for your thoughts. Harshu Vyas