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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (74318)	11/18/2023 9:45:56 AM
From: Elroy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78729

I don't know about IBM, but with Intel the proof will be in the pudding. If they actually recapture leadership in semiconductor manufacturing, it will an amazing turnaround. For me, not worth the risk. Intel has to spend a ton of money trying to recapture manufacturing leadership, and we don't know if they succeeed until the money is spent. Intel has had a nice move off of it's lows, and some of that perhaps is due to the unexpected Biden increased restrictions on China in regard to semis, and the desire by the US to maintain national champions in semis, which means the US government is going to perhaps "support Intel" more that anticipated. Micron, Intel and TXN are the major semi manufacturers in the US, I think, with Intel and Micron being the majors, and TXN is sort of in older legacy line width areas. But still, I won't touch it. I'd rather own a fabless semi company which makes money from their designs (software) rather than a manufacturer that fell behind. With Intel I don't like "the story" or the company's position in the market. I don't really have any strong opinion on the proper share price, but I would be frightened each time that they report results that they say "things didn't quite go according to plan, but we'll be back on track in six months". AMD makes similar chips as Intel, and is fabless. I own AMD. I guess I should say "owned". I sold a $120 Nov AMD call on Thursday for $1.05 when AMD's price was about $119.40, and it got called away yesterday on expiration. I hope to buy it back below $120 Monday.....this is the great thing about a Roth - no taxes on trading.

To: E_K_S who wrote (74318)	11/18/2023 10:04:32 AM
From: Sean Collett	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78729

I think the changes IBM just made to their pension/401K system also already highlight a need to secure cash flows. This should give some caution on buying them is my view. Long-term this will give them some flexibility, but overall I don't take the change as bullish the stock today. I also think this whole situation with OpenAI is going to be problematic for the whole sector. Sam was one thing, but now you have a mass exodus taking place over the weekend. Three senior researchers just resigned as well as Greg Brockman their president. Could cause a huge disruption to those stocks that benefited from the AI boom over the past year - connected to OpenAI directly or not. -Sean