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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sean Collett who wrote (74511)	12/13/2023 3:12:02 PM
From: Madharry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78560

i did not realize that web owns about 25% of oxy. no doubt was consulted about the deal. looks like another one of those days where you want to be fully invested in the market going in.

To: Sean Collett who wrote (74511)	12/14/2023 7:16:24 AM
From: Harshu Vyas	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78560

You underestimate yourself Sean. If you look at if from a very simple POV, you'll notice something incredibly obvious. TODAY short-term demand is driving oil prices. In ten years, the world will still demand oil at higher levels. Twenty years, thirty years maybe it slows but oil is necessary. AND supply is going to fall. I looked at the data a few months ago - filed in my bedroom somewhere. I suggest you do it, too. Basic economics suggests shortage = higher prices = higher profits for those who sit on oil. It's why I threw in the towel on XOM - management only want to drill, not savour and protect the resources they sit on. Short-term greed is not good for shareholders. A 2014esque rookie error. (You're right - oil hasn't really moved in recent times and is quite "cheap" relatively to history but isn't that the best time to buy? You need to read the history of oil for the prices to make sense and I find typing it all up to be tedious.) OXY's whole strategy proves that both Buffett and management think the same way as me - they're leveraging their balance sheet making "risky" acquisitions because they know in five, ten years as oil prices increase, the value of their business will increase. That's why they'll buyback stock and pay dividends. It's risky if oil prices fall dramatically (Covid) but in the long-term, it's a sure thing. FWIW, I sold more QRTEA to take positions in GTE and CRGY - both undervalued on their oil reserves. Oil, from here, has to be a balance sheet play and NOT a play on high ROEs or anything earning related. The less drilling, the more sitting around for as long as possible whilst just about earning enough to cover interest, the better. As for time cycles, I disagree. I do want to own companies I can own forever. CCL is an example and selling in the summer was a blunder. Oil as an industry is another example. QRTEA isn't - I don't want to hold QRTEA for more than five years but its value stinks. To trade at less than normalised annual free cash flow is ridiculous. Copying is quite a wonderful thing and I'm not ashamed of it at all. After all, wasn't it Burry that brought QRTEA to the table? Wasn't it Buffett that copied Graham when he bought GEICO? Copying blindly is a problem, yes, but taking pieces of other people's portfolios that you understand and sticking them in yours is intelligent investing, imo. Lastly, the political game is unimportant and a distraction - in the short term, politics is like demand (an annoyance) but the politicians haven't wreaked any havoc (yet). I don't know what the US government are playing at but, hopefully, Biden will be long gone by next year. As for other countries, it's in their interests to keep oil prices high and they probably will.