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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (203410)	12/28/2023 6:46:18 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218342

(1) Re <<A three-way diverse analysis of the present state of the Chinese economy: structural, cyclical, and in-between.>> I follow all narratives until they fail. I even follow one Zeihan, Peter, just to be sure. (2) Re <<The Chinese economy is the anti-thesis of the Austrians. ... History has shown that a managed economy doesn't ultimately work. Why should China be any different?>> Perhaps because the Austrians have not been around long enough? ... is why we do watch & brief, to discern what if anything happening and guess at the why. a few notes, observations and guesses, that ... (2-i) China at no time has intoned that the Chinese 'model' should be copied or even adapted, unlike a lot of other domains (2-ii) In order for the Chinese 'model' to work, the population for which the model is applied to must a priori be Chinese, or at the very least philosophically be Confucius-bent, am guessing (1-iii) One narrative is that the neoliberal CW is suppressing China China China by all means nasty and otherwise, because the Chinese 'model' is working, enabling China China China under the CPC to once more rally China and get China back to 35% global GDP / 50% global manufacturing where China once was (3) Re Message 34520451 I follow Hudson Institute, and finds it wanting, but have not yet abandoned the channel, because I need to know what the other side is thinking and why it is wrong. I am going to guess that the Hudson Institute gets much grants from the USA MIC. Doesn't automatically make the Institute right or wrong, but good to note. (4) Message 34520267 Re <<I will not watch any of the videos you “curate” which are specifically labeled as being related to the CCP. They are, implicitly, propaganda. You post many of them.>> (4-i) I watch a lot of discussion VLOGs, and coincidentally have watched much of the output of CSIS, Hudson Institute, etc etc. I load my daily watch at times for convenience so that my machines can easily access what I ought to watch and actually watch them. And yes, I find CSIS and Hudson and such same all suspect, but more useful at times than MSM. But in the main I find them to be echo chambers. I follow 347 channels, including MSM, think-tanks, alt-news, financial stuff, archaeological to movie / TV stuff, and in two languages. As we go through 2026 and catch sight of 2032, I suspect a few more channels might do. etc etc etc (4-ii) Re <<Hong Kongers who are hilariously happy with the CCP would probably do well at a birthday rally for Dear Leader in Pyongyang.>> as the expats flood back into HK, I shall let time do the proof. My PA migrated to Vancouver, with her younger daughter, whereas the older daughter insisted on staying with the dad. Politics splinter families. So am familiar with both sides of the debate. I was perfectly fine with my PA of 21 years being supportive of the street mob. I was not fine with the street mob when they started to burn and bomb and shut down schools. The vast majority of HK of of same stance, meaning protest by all means peaceful, but do nothing to make Pelosi say, "what a beautiful sight". In the meantime some of the names mentioned in this VLOG I know personally also good do not know if US buying China drones for Ukraine to use against Russia, even as the Russians say they get all drone parts from China, presumably from Alibaba platform (4-iii) Re <<The fact is that China under Xi has turned into a high tech security state. Yes, that cat catches many mice. One surveillance camera for every two citizens, gait recognition, social credit scores, control, control, and more control.>> ...coming to a place near all. (4-iv) Re <<Per capita GDP is in line with most Third World countries. The USA’s is 6x larger on a per capita basis. It is 25% of the global GDP, the same as during the Reagan years, despite the rise of competing economies everywhere (Brazil, China, Turkey, India, etc.).>> Global equalisation of revenue / cost has been a theme of the thread since the get-go, and the process is a process. Further, per capita anything is micro economics, that which pays for vacations and such. Overall GDP (and underpinning it, I suspect) and overall manufacturing is macro, that which funds civilisations (4-v) Re <<For its much-vaunted high tech push, the bulk of China’s economy is based on manufacturing items invented during the Industrial Revolution. We are a service, information, and digital economy. We attract the Chinese with our first rate higher education system (you should know). How many talented American kids dream of attending Beijing U?>> Copying is smart, enabling faster overtaking. As to schools and such, I have often noted that 'move a tree, the tree dies; but relocate a person, the person comes alive' Re <<Chinese manufacturing is based on the advantages provided by a huge labor pool, viz., BYD and its battery production.>> ... the view was correct once, but no longer, and no longer for some considerable amount of time. Re <<But unfavorable demographics will put a huge crimp on this advantage.>> ... have addressed the issue of demographics, re Chinese in China. Re <<those demographics are a direct result of direct regime control gone awry.>> ... have always noted, imperatives lead to solutions, and demographics is just another imperative. Re <<No, you push, push, push relentlessly push a flawed and unbalanced narrative. And the proof of it is that if I were Chinese and you were a CCP official, my words here would get me in deep trouble. Perhaps earn me a jail cell.>> ... untrue. As long as one does not advocate / incite overthrowing the system, all good, and just politics. (4-vi) Recommend Corruption is an important issue in China as everywhere and / but in China is systemically rooted out as opposed to rule-by-making-up-rules encoded in Message 34029533 CPC, with Mandate of Heaven, must continue to deliver Message 34389434 Mandate of Heaven important per Confucius Message 34430476 China demographics Message 34169204 CSIS not very good (same same Hudson Institute) Message 34180744 China tech Message 34210678 HK industrial lofts (the reason I pay attention to everything above, all boils down to where and how best to wager) Message 33460380 Recommend a watch, for many Q&A taken care of raised here Message 34520267 answers much of your objections regarding supply chains re China in supply chains