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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (83349)	1/4/2024 3:16:43 PM
From: Sun Tzu	2 Recommendations Recommended By ajtj99 The Ox Respond to of 97611

A lot of pros are calling for bonds to fall or at least be sideways. Jim Bianco is the odd man out who thinks long term yields are headed for 5.5%. I am in the camp that we've seen the bottom. But that doesn't mean they are a buy here. The key question is supply vs sentiment. Inflation headline will likely surprise to the down side, give my expectation for housing/rent drop. But there is also a lot of supply coming online that needs to be absorbed. If you put a gun on my head, I'd say bonds will be higher by the end of 2024 than they are now. As to observing TLT, I understood you. But I think you used the wrong visual. Bonds (and stocks for that matter) should not be charted in isolation. They should be measured in the context of the economic/business environment they operate in. The spread is usually the better metric.

To: The Ox who wrote (83349)	1/4/2024 7:47:31 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	5 Recommendations Recommended By Arran Yuan Cyrus Real Man skier31 towerdog Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 97611

I don't have a clue how bonds will trade short term but while most don't think RRP matters, I think once RRP runs out (we've dropped from 2 trillion to 700 billion so far), bonds are going to start dropping again. Yellen gamed the debt offerings to take advantage of the RRP pool so she has been doing short term treasuries instead of longer term bonds thus far. Once RRP runs out, that slush pile will be dry. She needs to roll expiring debt plus the 2 trillion deficit this year. Who in their right mind would lend the government money at 4% when they are spending and racking up debt at this pace? I just don't see bonds rallying longer term unless the equity markets take a major dump. Just my thoughts. PS - somebody baiting me just makes me want to stay away more. I too can look up what is moving and claim big wins when I didn't post entries. Especially when I said I sold everything prior. ????? I posted when I was going to short that stock, I did and posted my exit when someone said I should have held. My cover was almost at the exact low. I've been trading longer than you've probably been alive and finished my penny stock phase in my 20s. LOL