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Strategies & Market Trends : The Aristocrats (tm) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sense who wrote (4400)	1/31/2024 3:14:24 PM
From: sense	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5619

GHSI $8.50 Only 1.28m shares outstanding. Reports $6/sh in cash... no debt. EDIT $3.8M debt... Inked deal to sell a brand to another company for $17 million in cash... So... $23/sh in cash... for $8.50 ? Edit: $15/sh cash for $8.50... and wait until June to get it...

To: sense who wrote (4400)	2/1/2024 3:37:32 PM
From: sense	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5619

Shipping pick CTRM In Sept 2023's Q3 CTRM, on Nov 8th, reported losing $4.5M. From $1.37 in February, the stock hit a low of $0.29 on Nov 14, but, in the same Q3 report, they noted having $144M in cash, or $1.49/sh vs a debt of $101M. It was a tough summer in shipping... with economies slowing down... and, bulk shipping isn't most lucrative when there is economic malaise, as there has been. But, at the same time... interest rates were rising... so, along with inflation driving costs higher... wages no doubt a big part of that following what happened to the crews during Covid... fuel costs a big part... but, Interest Rate Costs soaring as the Fed raises rates... and everyone else is forced to follow... no doubt a big impact, too... while ships are "capital intensive" and largely funded by debt... which drives significant volatility in the shippers. And, as traffic suffers... the value of hulls also declines... so, the fixed element in debts owed, not necessarily imposing rate limits... conflicts with the potential decline in the value held as collateral... Essentially, shipping is floating Commercial Real Estate on steroids, without the support of long term trends in fixed places, rather than a constant flux . And then... Hamas killed 1,200 Israeli citizens in a terror attack... and the World War that started when Russia invaded Ukraine gained another front. The Houthi's shut down the Red Sea... and, as Panama has been having a drought in an El Nino year... both the Suez Canal and Panama Canals are suddenly become huge choke points on global trade... forcing ships representing something like 15 to 20% of world trade to sail the long way around Africa and South America... taking two weeks longer... and requiring something a bit over 5% more ships just to sustain the pace in global trade, with the delay factored in... Five percent isn't a lot, perhaps... but, its more than enough to drive prices higher. So, first, day rates on shipping soared... and shippers are suddenly all making a lot more money. But, at the same time... the prices of "used" ships... suddenly doubled... and even the older hulls drifting toward the scrap yard... suddenly became essential to sustaining the flow of goods across the seas... But , the war likely won't last forever... and, Panama will have another rainy season again... someday ? Since the end of Q3, one assumes, CTRM has been making better money again with rates rising... and since the end of Q3, CTRM has been selling hulls... Hull / $$$ / date sold - date closed - magic nova/ magic horizon $31.9M jan 29 - ??? - magic moon $11.8 nov 28 - jan 17 - magic venus $17.5 jan 5 - ??? - magic orion $17.4 dec 18 - ??? - magic phoenix $14.0 oct 23 - nov 28 - magic sun $6.55 oct 23 - nov 15 - magic argo $16.75 - sept 26 Since the Q3 report, CTRM's hull sales have raised another $116 million in cash... bringing the total to $260 million... or $2.70 per share. We'll have to wait for the Q4/Annual Report to see how revenues have faired relative to expenses and the cash raised... and what the impact is on expenses and the debt... along with trends in the earnings.. The chart patterns [not that they can dictate value independently of management action and the market reaction to it] suggest you might see a retracement to $1.37 by July... that still valuing them at only half the cash... which is, perhaps, with a bit of luck, also a likely time frame in which we might see the ongoing recession begin to relax its grip on us, a bit more... perhaps even with more rain and less war ? Interest on the cash might enable a small return to shareholders... while, shipping is also well known for the occasional and erratic distribution in a return of earnings or capital to shareholders... usually near the end of one cycle and the beginning of another... with share prices wildly discounted from value. Having sold 8 hulls thus far... CTRM still retains ownership of 2 container ships and 11 dry bulk carriers... + ariana (cont) + gabriela (cont) + magic thunder + magic perseus + magic starlight + magic nebula + magic mars + magic horizon + magic P + magic vela + magic eclipse + magic pluto + magic calisto And, assuming the ongoing obstructions of shipping are short lived... they should be able to continue making good money, now... while selling hulls dear now... even earning higher rates on cash instead of paying them on debt... and expect to buy newer hulls back for half as much as they sell for now when things settle back down... And, one might assume... interest rates are likely to be lower again, soon, too... making the carrying cost of future hull purchases more manageable... Meanwhile... DHT - who saw their Q3 earnings cut in half - will report Q4 on Feb 6th... which might provide a bit of current insight into the trends in the market... ?

To: sense who wrote (4400)	2/1/2024 4:13:41 PM
From: sense	Respond to of 5619

Ridiculous Markets... and Ridiculous "Leadership" I took profits on a few oil company option positions this morning... before noon, when oil went "risk off" again... and oil is being monkey hammered lower this afternoon... as consistent with Biden "energy policy" being almost entirely based in manipulation of markets and lying about "the numbers"... The pundit class are telling us... "Biden's" war on Iran has "been decided"... and, its not "a war" but... a "campaign"... which is not a war, but only "a part of a war"... but, still intended to last for "weeks" or more. Still, in order to make it not overly disruptive... or more disruptive than it needs to be... they've courteously decided that they probably won't have it start until some time after the close on Friday... I'll look for oil being "monkey hammered" some more, tomorrow... and will look at resetting options positions... with longer dates favored, to allow for inconveniences in the potential of the internet evaporating... given the probabilities are that hobby horse generals "Biden" and Sullivan are less "in control" of what's coming than Murphy... as you might perhaps expect when national security policy is being decided by a third rate campaign staffer... Oh, yeah... that's not entirely speculation... as they're also telling you, through the pundits, to be ready for cyber attacks when this bullshit happens... because they're SAYING they're going to be using Cyber War methods to attack Iran... as part of "payback"... so, expect "retaliation" from China, et al... Or, as stupid as that would be... maybe they're planning on taking it down pre-emptively... to prevent "market impacts" ? So, might want to ensure you've got ZERO exposure to trades that might end badly without your input... "If anything can go wrong it will"... is always a good rule of thumb in war... and, in current situation... might want to amplify that by some factor in leverage... given the cloud of chaos that always follows Stumbly Joe Biden around... "Never underestimate Joe's ability to fuck things up" - Barrack Obama