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Strategies & Market Trends : CFZ E-Wiggle Workspace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: skinowski who wrote (40102)	2/19/2024 6:59:27 PM
From: Perspective	1 Recommendation Recommended By JSD Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41471

I'm glad I'm not the only one keeping an eye on multi-decade wave patterns! Quite frankly, that one chart could be the most important of every chart to ever appear on this thread. It is the ultimate driver of K-waves: the long-run price of money. The need for people, corporations, and nations to borrow the savings of others is the most fundamental aspect of capitalism and financial markets, and is central to money supply creation. Long rates drive short rates, and serve as the comparator for every other financial instrument ever created. The return of inflation reflected in the breakdown of the disinflationary trend that has predominated for four decades could mark the shift of Kondratiev seasons from autumn to winter. I'm fairly certain that simultaneous stock, real estate, and bond market bubbles would only occur at the end of autumn. It seems a bit counterintuitive that deflation would be brought about by the first whiff of inflation in 40 years, but it's the only binding constraint on the system when the Fed and the government pump money into the system endlessly. So it pricks the autumnal bubble and ushers in winter... The good news is that you can already imagine that AI and biotech (including my personal favorite, longevity) will lead the next K-wave springtime and bring new heights of prosperity to the world - assuming we don't tear everything down and give up on the Bill of Rights and the Constitution as the powers that be attempt to wrest permanent control of the world away from individuals. I am quite bullish on the future. Hopefully it doesn't take us too long to deal with the repercussions of the previous cycle excesses. It will be interesting to see if the dollar's reserve status survives the process.