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To: Perspective who wrote (40113)	2/26/2024 9:28:42 AM
From: skinowski	Respond to of 41470

Thank you. This really clarifies a lot - even though, gaining a deeper, “working” understanding would take quite a bit more effort. You’re right, there seem to be some degree of season “mixing” - which is natural in such lengthy processes. It’s a bit reminiscent of the “Fourth Turning” theory - and the lengths of these cycles are similar. Over the years, I’ve arrived to the conclusion that for a non-professional who has a job - or at least, other interests and priorities in their lives - the best investing philosophy is trend following. A barrier which needs to be overcome is having the discipline to do it systematically. For instance, knowing some TA - and having an active mind - makes it difficult to refrain from making moves in anticipation of signals. In my case, I couldn’t do it - the best I could do was to keep core positions - while “allowing” myself to trade around those positions. One good approach is - for the core positions - to use monthly charts. There are studies showing that following monthly signals - counterintuitively - ends up producing better long term results that working off weekly, daily or intraday charts. I guess, the need to wait acts as an extra “filter”. It’s simple - for example, staying long SPY for as long as its 5 month ma remains above its 21 month ma - results in a CAGR of 11.7% - with a sharpe ratio if 0.78, which is very decent. Beats the index quite a bit - and you need to take a peak at the scheme once monthly. Gary Antonacci - the man who first described the “Dual Momentum” scheme - once told a roomful of asset managers that he was surprised how few of them were interested in using the system. The reply he got was “It’s too simple”. In other words, you can’t charge a 1% fee for checking the markets once a month. Well, in the years that followed, Gary developed a number of strategies based on the same principle - but… even using just the main idea gives one a great advantage. It works for relative strength comparisons as well. This one, below, I just made up this minute. There are too many wrong signals, and a better combination MA’s could be found - but it shows you at a glance where you want to be in this market (hint: the trend is still down since 2011, but showing bullish divergences). Could be used for just about anything.