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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (18329)	3/21/2024 11:27:18 AM
From: Kirk ©	2 Recommendations Recommended By sixty2nds Sr K Respond to of 26512

Indeed. The question is where are we in this cycle? We are still in the tail end of the layoff of excess workers phase here in the Silicon Valley. These are the 20K or so workers a year that were being hired at Meta and Google during the pandemic to meet demand. Now that we have AI and they found many "workers" don't... they've been slashing the less productive or those needed for projects that were not making money. That happened in 1998 which was another great time to buy stocks that had pulled back. The big news I heard yesterday was chips are "on allocation" for most everything. It matches what COHR has said for a couple of quarters... that they can't make their fastest fiberoptic transceivers fast enough to keep up with demand. I looked at Nvidia's product offerings this week and saw they make a ton more "stuff" than just chips to sell to people making data centers. They offer full solutions including software. The way they are going, they might have to start buying dams and solar farms to complete the package... I thought the next step in computing would be "Quantum computing" but from what I gather listening to the Keynote (video posted here early this week) is Nvidia has found a way to INCREASE Moore's Law without simply relying on making chip features smaller. I think he's done it with software and distributed computing where they allocate tasks to specific areas of chips designed to optimize speed & power. This has given a curve much steeper than the old Moore's Law curve that geezers like me thought would flatten out by now. Maybe I'm not understanding it correctly, but that is the gist... Huang said "only 95%" of current computing is obsolete...