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To: skinowski who wrote (40165)	4/9/2024 2:18:33 PM
From: Perspective	1 Recommendation Recommended By skinowski Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41469

This underscores my concern that this inflation is going to play out differently than the 1970s experience - which is to say, not even real estate will keep up with CPI inflation. As I posted here, Message 34630098 my concern is that this inflation will be focused on commodities - things we need to survive like energy and food, and hard assets as people rush to exchange green pieces of paper for something tangible that doesn't have a liability on the other side. Stocks flat, real estate flat, rents flat; food up, gas up, electricity up, service prices up; rates up, bonds down. Nowhere to hide except gold and resource stocks...

To: skinowski who wrote (40165)	4/10/2024 9:56:51 AM
From: robert b furman	1 Recommendation Recommended By Perspective Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41469

Good Morning Ski, The other dirty little secret no MSM wants to discuss is that rental inflation is a big piece of the CPI calculation. As interest rates go up new multifamily housing increases in cost. Boosting up the rental rates required for a return on the investment. Add in the fact that Biden's open border has allowed 10 to 15 million illegal immigrants to come in, and you have a swollen rental class demand in the demographics. I suspect not too many of the illegal immigrants are home buyers, DUH. Buy the time we get a commodity super cycle going from a synchronized global recovery with built in more expensive energy (read that to be everything produced) and a deserving middle class clamoring for deserved wage increases, we'll be looking at a Federal Reserve 2024 dot plot that travels from the lower left to the upper right. Fiscal overspending coupled with energy inflation and a commodity super cycle sure sounds like the 1980 recipe for stagflation in my recollection. When Oil hits $150 a barrel, then that will be the time to increase Treasury duration to 5,7,and 10 years. As Jamie Dimon says, the 30 year can reach 7 to 8 percent ya know. For a short time window, that will be available - right before duration risk is choking off the banking system, and we go into a serious recessionary contraction. Then our Treasuries will become capital gains material. That's when we BOOMERS will lock in a comfortable retirement for the duration of our lives. JMHO Bob