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To: skinowski who wrote (40166)	4/9/2024 2:37:31 PM
From: Perspective	1 Recommendation Recommended By skinowski Respond to of 41469

You had asked about Kondratieff recently. I think I picked up most of it from Prechter's book, but I can't seem to find it at the moment to confirm. I was thinking this morning that the four seasons may be altered by the collective attempts to avoid ever letting financial winter - the D-words (deflation, depression) - ever happen again. If you insist that winter can't happen, then you might just cycle back and forth between summer and fall, but the summer is going to be increasingly inflationary. Referring to the image below, rates are supposed to bottom in winter, coincident with a crisis of confidence. Very, very hard to imagine that four bad weeks (March 2020) constitute "winter." The credit and confidence cycles never unfolded. And if you don't get winter, than you can't get spring. If you jump straight back into summer, then the downsides of summer might assert themselves with a vengeance: much higher inflation, commodities, and interest rates. Kinda funny that they have real estate in every season except winter.

To: skinowski who wrote (40166)	4/9/2024 2:59:31 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41469

Another bit of food for thought: The current moment may bear more similarity to Japan 1990 than either of our previous bubbles. They had an "everything" bubble in 1990 similar to our 2020 bubbles, and the government response was to blow the public debt sky high. Only took 34 years to break even. Buy and hold, baby...