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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Sun Tzu who wrote (86123)4/23/2024 3:45:47 PM
From: Tweets Boar Hog1 Recommendation

Recommended By
ajtj99

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 97561
 
Imo the secular bear in NG has ended. A new secular bull has started. The last one went for 16 yrs bottom to top roughly.

Tentatively I had mid April as an NG low, appears to be a secondary low.

Boil as we know is a bit more tricky. Not yet proven the final low is in, but should get a good pop here. Another low should occur in about 6 or maybe even 9 months, if it is 6 months that is the shoulder season low before winter hits. L48 is over due for a hard winter, one of these years.

Regardless Boil going to be a huge play.

Rotary rig counts for ng still in the crapper. Not much investment going on. Good for the NG fundamentals.

Tweets

The master of cycles has the NG intermediate cycle at 4.5 yrs. For the last three cycles the 4 yr been a better fit. We're just past the last mid April 4 yr low.



This is a chart shown earlier, predicted an end of Feb low in the NG continuous. We got that low, it held. I added another 12 mos cycle, phased just to the right of the previous one, off a lower low. It hit a few days ago. Looks like it will hold.

I added the Boil overlay, go back and look at the previous 4 yr low. Who knows what will happen this time around, but in any event you can see the 6 mos and 9 mos cycle, off that Boil low, at the last 4 yr NG low. Boil then made a lower LT low.






To: Sun Tzu who wrote (86123)4/23/2024 8:34:57 PM
From: ajtj991 Recommendation

Recommended By
Sun Tzu

  Respond to of 97561
 
Watch out for the weekly EIA release at 10:30AM tomorrow morning (BOIL).



To: Sun Tzu who wrote (86123)4/23/2024 9:05:22 PM
From: ajtj993 Recommendations

Recommended By
bull_dozer
skier31
Sun Tzu

  Respond to of 97561
 
Chart symmetry on the NG Spot monthly suggests a possible monthly inverse H&S bottom that targets $5.50 on spot NG by mid-summer 2025. (Sorry, no time for a chart).

The projected surge would happen in late spring 2025.

Summer 2025 futures prices are already at $3.50, so it's a modest increase from there. Price compression in the late winter in about 10-months may offer good entries.