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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (3195)	2/18/1998 8:26:00 PM
From: Timoteo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 18691

I shorted @ 111.5. Should know better than to guess earnings, but there may still be profit-taking tomorrow. I still believe military action against IRAQ is inevitable. If anything, the "demonstrations" at today's town meeting might give Saddam the false impression that the American public oppose action. He has totally misread the west before and has surrounded himself with "yes-men" who tell him what he wants to hear. With six positive days on the DOW, traders should be looking for an excuse to take profits. I'd like to hear from some TA people on CTXS and AVNT. Both look very weak. Mc Nabb Brothers: are you out there? Best Wishes, Timoteo

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (3195)	2/18/1998 8:35:00 PM
From: Lazlo Pierce	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Roger, just curious. Dells been growing at 50 - 100% for the last few years, and currently has a forward P/E in the mid 30s, though high, what is too high? What must you think of KO,G or even MDT? MDT (Medtronics) reported today .31 vs est of .32. Last year they made .27, so growing ~ 15%. First Call has em at 17%, and ~ 20% for the next 5 years, yet the stock is trading @ 56.5 Forward P/E of 43.5. As long as Dell keeps it up,(and it looks like it should thru 98 at least), this baby ain't gonna tank, unless the whole market tanks, and at that point you can make good money on almost anything. Just wondering your thoughts on the above (Dell has been berry, berry good to me :-)). Respectfully Dave

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (3195)	2/18/1998 8:58:00 PM
From: larry	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Roger, You were predicting a bear market about a month and a half ago. Still believe so? DELL...I think it's overvalued, however it will only move up and I think another 20 points up is not out of question. Seriously, if any of the bears began to long ONLY DELL two years ago, I believe that performance will simply beat out any of the performances by the bears on this board, and probably most of the bulls. I know a guy who started shorting DELL early last year. He is broke (borrowing $$$ from credit card companies) and still believe that DELL will come down. I believe that he has lost more than 400% of his initial investment. Actually I like lots of your short picks...however I am too conservative to short anything now. good luck, larry