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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (19202)	6/12/2024 2:18:05 PM
From: robert b furman	1 Recommendation Recommended By sixty2nds Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26781

Hi Kirk, Two main long term disagreements with the IEA estimates: 1)They serially underestimate the demand growth for emerging markets (those that have a huge young demographic). They all want what we have. 2) They project with every EV a resultant decline in the usage of fossil fuels. This misinterpretation is best backed up by Norway (which has the highest EV market share sales of the total). The use of an EV is usually a second car and used for short trips. While the ICE's are used for longer tips and times when loads are bigger. The displacement of fossil fuels is not linear with the purchase of EV unit. They get used less and do not represent a 1 to 1 reduction in fossil fuel usage. The IEA misses this and at times has to make 600,000 gallon adjustments. Garbage in and garbage out as they say. In addition the only major non OPEC growth in supply has been the shale deposits of the USA. Although innovation continues, the Balken and Eagle Ford have both plateaued. It is anticipated that the Permian will plateau in late 2024 or 2025, depending on how many Category 1 (highest potential) sites are drilled this year. Excess crude is a leftover dream from the hyped up days of renewables are cheaper and the ICE is going to become obsolete. Place your bets gentlemen. <smile> Bob