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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric Yang who wrote (8666)	2/20/1998 9:51:00 AM
From: Sam Scrutchins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213176

Eric, Your two estimates diverge only because of your different estimates for non-G3 computer sales revenue. The divergence seems wide, and I am curious of what your uncertainty is. Also, why not make a range for G3 units as well. Seems to me that a good effort might be to capture a 'reasonable' worst/Best case scenario with some confidence that EPS will fall somewhere in between.

To: Eric Yang who wrote (8666)	2/20/1998 10:54:00 AM
From: GS_Wall Street	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213176

Eric, Excellent job. with your MAC you probably created that site in 10 minutes:), it would take me 2 weeks using my tools on my wintel running office 97. Your model as well as mine is pretty close the, big unknown or assumption is the top line revenue????? I assume that Gross margins will be slighly ahead of last quarters due to continued benefits of cost controls and better margins on newer machines. No more than 1% total improvement though. Selling Expenses to be down very slightly at ~229M due to increased avertising expeneses? And RD to hold flat at ~80M. Total costs ~309M. Does Apple have unused tax credits or do they hold out Income taxes? Using $1420M top line, my estimate is for .15 per share earnings. Hey I checked Earnings Est and what do you know .15 per share. The stupid guys on the street just might get it right this time. Although I would like to see them lower to give us some room to breath.

To: Eric Yang who wrote (8666)	2/20/1998 8:37:00 PM
From: Phillip C. Lee	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 213176

Eric, You have done an excellent job on Q2 estimates. I prefer to have the first one (Est. 1). However, I have rosier estimate as follows based on: - Anderson's words (e.g. revenue has been stablized around 1.6b); - no cloners competition on high-ends; - first full season G3's sales in Japan along with Macworld/economics stimulus; - Currency exchange advantages against the previous quarter; - cheaper parts (e.g. disk, memory; similar to Dell's) due to Asia's financial turmoil; - Motivation by Dell's CEO, Jobs wouldn't be able to swallow the previous insult. If Dell is excellent, Apple will be even better; - European booming stock markets will drive Apple's products sales higher; Therefore, my estimate is as follows: - Revenue: 1520m; - Profit/Loss: 93.4m; - EPS: $0.73 - Units Sold: 611,600; - G3%: 56.9% (same as Est. 1, G3's and non-G3's are proportionally increased); You can call me crazy, but my dream might be closer to reality. We'll see in a couple of months. Phil