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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Harshu Vyas who wrote (76241)	9/29/2024 2:15:08 PM
From: E_K_S	Respond to of 78753

Germany and EU in/close to Recession, GDP still positive but falling. Is it time to buy or perhaps wait another 6-8 months? VW & BMW closing factories, basic materials & Oil/NG usage declining (w/ Winter coming more LNG); what about other commodities? According to projections by a range of economic institutions, the economy of the Euro currency area is forecast to grow by between 0.5 percent and 1.2 percent in 2024. The Eurozone saw slow growth in 2023, when it grew by 0.7 percent - albeit this was significantly better than many economic forecasts which predicted a recession in the EU in that year. Across all the forecasts included, growth is expected to pick up in 2025, when the Eurozone's economy is expected to grow between 1.4 and 1.8 percent. Compare US commodity activity vs EU: Commodity Update - US Link to commodity charts & commentary Natural gas had all the moving averages converge last month indicating a volatile sideways pattern for more the year. It broke out last week and has confirmed the break of a key volume by price level. It looks possible to set a higher high and even test the 52 week high. Interestingly copper is exhibiting the same pattern as natural gas, though its break out happened earlier. This is the indication of the last phase of a super cycle with a rally in commodities???? Timber setting a new 52 week high. This usually only happens when housing constructions is anticipated to grow. (This is Surprising!) Contrary indicator in energy sector. The moving averages also converged over the last month but the break is the downside and an intermediate downtrend is in place. Decrease in demand in China may be being priced in???? - Maybe because OPEC going to increase their production brining prices down. Gold still running on all cylinders and setting consecutive 52 week highs. Central banks moving back to gold standard in light of weaker USD? ------------------------------------------------------------- . . .a lot of commodities are priced as if the economy was in a growth phase except for energy. Not so much for the EU from what I can tell. ------------------------------------------------------------- Find those EU companies that have exposure in the US markets.. Maybe those w/ manufacturing in US. too. Services good but wage rates moving higher so expect lower margins.