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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (9094)

10/18/2024 6:32:55 PM

From: Sun Tzu

Respond to of 10635

JPM says US election risk not yet reflected in metal prices
Oct 10, 202411:24 UTC

AAL+1.80%

BOL+1.81%

HAR+0.32%

BHP-2.16%
** J.P.Morgan says that while industrial metal prices have priced in China's monetary policy easing, they do not yet reflect tariff risks if Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election

** It points to the previous Trump administration's trade protectionism and the 25% tariffs on U.S. steel imports announced in 2018, which had led to a decline in metal prices

** It sees a 10-20% downside to major European metal and mining stocks' fair values if base metal and iron ore prices fall more than 10%

** It is bullish on copper, aluminium and gold, but cautious on iron ore

** JPM downgrades Anglo American

AAL to "neutral" as the U.S. election and potential tariffs create an asymmetric downside risk to industrial commodities, including iron ore

** It cuts Boliden

BOL to "underweight" saying it expects the Swedish miner to be FCF negative in 2025 and pointing to its material zinc exposure

** It raises Harmony Gold Mining

HAR to "neutral" based on its bullish gold price outlook

RATING AND PT CHANGES:

COMPANY

RATING

OLD RATING

PT

OLD PT

Boliden	underweight	neutral	SEK 300	SEK 305
Anglo American	neutral	overweight	GBP 23.35	GBP 22.85
Harmony Gold Mining	neutral	underweight	ZAR 150	ZAR 90
BHP BHP	neutral	n/a	GBP 25.00	GBP 25.30
Gold Fields GFI	neutral	n/a	ZAR 333	ZAR 279
Sibanye-Stillwater SSW	neutral	n/a	ZAR 19.73	ZAR 23.60
Anglo American Platinum AMS	neutral	n/a	ZAR 574	ZAR 589
Norsk Hydro NHY	overweight	n/a	NOK 84	NOK 83
Lundin Mining LUN	overweight	n/a	CAD 17.80	CAD 17.30
AngloGold Ashant AU	overweight	n/a	$37	$32
Hochschild HOC	overweight	n/a	GBP 285	GBP 250
Fresnillo FRES	overweight	n/a	GBP 900	GBP 800
Impala Platinum IMP	overweight	n/a	ZAR 114	ZAR 109
Northam Platinum NPH	overweight	n/a	ZAR 137	ZAR 152