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Technology Stocks : IFMX - Investment Discussion -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Graham who wrote (9635)	2/21/1998 7:14:00 AM
From: J Bertrand	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14631

Bob, Your responses are always well thought out. I don't disagree with you on this point. My point is that Bob has a two fold mission. 1. Get the books impeccably clean. I think it is obvious to everyone that that has happened. 2. More importantly, grow the business. While I have great respect for Mr. Finocchio, this is where he has to come through or the stock will not rise. I think that Q1 will be a mixed quarter because of what you have said. I think we will see more evidence through high profile customer wins that the business continues to improve, but possibly lower revenue due to the fact that the books won't be helping as much as they did in Q4. Bob, my stock price predictions (right after announcement of .05) for 3 quarters from now might have been too enthusiastic. But, it is clear to me based on the profile of the customers that Informix is winning and the way Informix has positioned itself in the marketplace that this is a bonafide turnaround. I believe that by next year Informix stock will have improved by 50%-70% from these levels. Best wishes Jeff Bertrand

To: Robert Graham who wrote (9635)	2/21/1998 10:14:00 AM
From: investorgal	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 14631

Bob, I agree with you on many of your points. The accounting does give bobf the opportunity to look good at the expense of the past. I always thought it was a great trick to say that the last 3 years had bad numbers, but forgive us, we'll just move them into the quarters where it is convenient for the current management. Nice technique. I am looking for several things: 0) The audited results. Will these hold up? Given bobf's reputation, I believe so. 1) Real revenue growth without restatement affects. Also, license revenue needs to grow much more than service & consulting revenue. Consulting revenue is low margin, the rates are really squeezed. Service (or maintenance) revenue only grows when the license revenue grows. License revenue is where the $$$ are. Anyone who has been in sales knows that. 2) Can the expenses stay down? How the heck did they come in $20+m less than bobf predicted anyway? We need the 10k/10q to see that. I know additional real estate was closed in Q4, but not that much. 3) Real NEW customer wins in the US. We keep hearing about the same customers. Fidelity and First Union are not new and anyone who things that IFMX sales did not discount deeply is kidding themselves. 4) Some quality marketing. Technology alone won't win. Informix needs to get it's name back in front of people. 5) Real buy-in from partners. In truth, SAP doesn't push any DB and since Oracle is dominant, guess what. Peoplesoft is not on good terms with IFMX (I guess Duffield got burned by PhilW), BAAN has backed off the exclusive IFMX bandwagan and the CIS vendors see very little IFMX demand. IFMX has also gotten rid of most of their partners relationship people. 6) New sales management. The stories I hear about the current sales management are mind-boggling. If the best thing that can be put in a bio (on the IFMX web page) is "opened 12 new offices" at a time when the company (OpenMarket) was tanking, it makes me believe the stories are true. I am currently long lots of IFMX. I have played it both ways, long and short, as well as written calls and puts. The Q4 numbers certainly beat my expectations (based on my estimate of $185m expenses, $165m revenue). But I am still cautious. I believe the company can hit $12 for a share price this year if bobf can keep things moving and the numbers get solid. I also think a buy-out is not unlikely. So there is money to be made if bobf can convince the analysts he is on the recovery path. I don't believe he has done that yet. Cheers.